The recent trend has been away from spending big dollars on exploration and production or mergers and acquisitions in the oil and gas space, but we’ve seen several deals in recent weeks that confirm that companies are indeed looking to the future.

Suncor Energy’s (TSX: SU, NYSE: SU) proposed buyout of Petro-Canada (TSX: PCA, NYSE: PCZ) is an expression by Suncor’s board and management of real confidence in the oil sands as a long-term play, and CE Portfolio holdings ARC Energy Trust (TSX: AET-U, OTC: AETUF) and Advantage Energy Income Fund (TSX: AVN-U, NYSE: AAV) each have taken extraordinary steps in recent months to make sure they have sufficient cash right now to invest in the Montney Shale Formation.

Canada’s oil sands–estimated to be the world’s largest reserve outside the Middle East–represent a rare opportunity for potential production growth in a non-OPEC country, and the Montney is estimated to hold 28 percent of Canada’s proven gas reserves.

Developing the oil sands economically–i.e., in an environment where crude prices approximate USD100 per barrel again–seems a long way off at this point. And natural gas prices have continued to lag, even as crude has found a stable range in the USD50 neighborhood.

Suncor has already established itself as a leading developer of the oil sands, second only to Syncrude, the partnership of major oils operated by a unit of ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM). The Petro-Canada deal will also boost the company’s refining capability, a major need for any producer of heavy oil. That should enable it to control costs far more effectively operation-wide, and ultimately increase profitability greatly. Suncor said the merger will save the combined company about CAD1.3 billion a year in operating expenses and provide greater efficiencies in capital expenditure.

Montney’s geology is complex with varying reservoir characteristics and quality. But the magnitude of the prize is potentially enormous. EnCana (TSX: ECA, NYSE: ECA), for example, estimates it has 60 trillion cubic feet of original gas in place on its Montney lands alone, in the same ballpark with its south-of-the-border shale plays, Barnett, Piceance and Haynesville.

ARC Energy Trust began breaking open the Upper Montney formation in 2003, but development only took off after it drilled the play’s first multiple-stage frac horizontal well in July 2005. With a lateral reach of 1,500 meters and five fracs along its length, the pioneering well cost CAD7.9 million and is still producing 1.6 million cubic feet per day (mmcf/d).

ARC recently drilled a 1,900 meter horizontal leg, fraced it eight times, spent CAD5 million, and achieved initial production of 8 mmcf/d. The company reported finding and development costs of about CAD10 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) at Dawson, a netback of about CAD40 per boe, and total production of about 5 billion cubic feet (bcf), nearly 1 million boe, for each well.

In terms of exploration, tight gas is more comparable to oil sands than to conventional oil and gas. The resource is pretty much known to be there in very large quantities, but the challenge is extracting the gas at an economic cost. The fundamental solution to that problem is coming through multiple hydraulic fracturing of long horizontal wellbores.

ARC Energy, one of the largest, most efficient oil and gas producer trusts, has trimmed its distribution by 40 percent since September 2008. The additional cash saved on the monthly payout, combined with its solid balance sheet, will allow ARC to move aggressively from building its Montney assets to exploiting them. The trust actually boosted its 2009 capital expenditure forecast in the late fall of 2008, even as the global economy and financial system seemed to be falling apart.

Advantage, keen on making a quick dent in its forecast CAD2.5 billion long-term capital expenditure on the Montney, announced its intention to immediately convert to a corporation (subject to unitholder approval) and suspended its distribution this month. EnCana, a new addition to the Canadian Edge coverage universe, has devoted considerable resources to its projects in the Montney.

In this period of uncertainty, companies have to make difficult short-term decisions that could lead to down-the-road cash flow. Suncor’s deal for Petro-Canada and ARC Energy’s and Advantage Energy’s recent moves have been entirely focused on long-term sustainability.

Mark-to-Market Markup

The US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) announced last week that it will allow companies to use “significant” judgment in valuing assets to reduce writedowns on certain investments, including mortgage- backed securities. The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) will discuss fair value accounting April 23-24.

Canada’s accounting regulator, the Accounting Standards Board (AcSB), will issue its decision on the matter after it can evaluate moves made by US and international bodies. The AcSB is awaiting final word from FASB on its revisions and for information from the IASB conference later this month.

European Union ministers said earlier this month that it’s “critical” that convergence on accounting standards is reached on the continent to ensure the region’s banks aren’t at a disadvantage against US competitors. Of primary concern for the AcSB is that its regulations mesh with international standards. Paul Cherry, chairman of the body, also noted that Canada’s banking system is quite different from the US financial industry.

Canada’s six main banks have taken about USD15.9 billion in pretax debt writedowns since the financial crisis began in 2007, compared to USD916.2 billion recorded by banks and brokers worldwide.

Speaking Engagements

There are few better places to combine work and play than Sin City: Join Canadian Edge, Editor Roger Conrad and The Energy Strategist Editor Elliott Gue for The Money Show Las Vegas, May 11-14, 2009, at The Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino.

With Elliott’s and Roger’s sage advice, this is one trip to Vegas that won’t make a wreck out of you.

To attend as Roger’s guest, click here or call 800-970-4355 and refer to promotion code 012649.

And make plans to join Roger, Elliott, Gregg Early and Benjamin Shepherd at the 18th Atlanta Investment Conference. Sponsored by Friends for Autism, the conference is held in a mountain setting north of Atlanta from Thursday, April 23, to Saturday, April 25.

Roger, a steady hand through many market events such as the one we’re dealing with now, will talk about Canadian income and royalty trusts as well as his new service focused on exploiting the greatest spending boom in history, New World 3.0.

Elliott will detail the new direction for Personal Finance and provide insight into his approach to stock selection and portfolio management. What’s required now amid these difficult times are clarity and focus, qualities Elliott has demonstrated in these pages and through The Energy Strategist for years.

Gregg, a constant at PF for nearly two decades, will be there to address recent developments with the publication. He’ll also discuss the Smart Grid, an endeavor he’s exploring as part of his role with New World 3.0.

Ben, editor of Louis Rukeyser’s Mutual Funds and Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street, the in-house mutual fund expert, will discuss efficient, cost effective ways to simplify the investing process.

Be sure to bring your questions. These guys love to talk markets and everything that impacts them.

Attendance is limited to 175 of the most enlightened, savvy individual investors. Go to http://www.aicatchota.com/ for more information. Meals are included for the Maple Leaf Memo discounted price of $459 for a single and $599 for couples. Call 770-952-7861 or e-mail altinvestconf@mindspring.com to register.

The Roundup

Oil & Gas

EnCana Corp (TSX: ECA, NYSE: ECA) and its partner ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) have filed a request with Alberta regulators for approval to expand by 120,000 barrels a day their Christina Lake thermal oil sands project. Christina Lake is currently approved for a 98,800-barrels-per-day production limit; the increase to 218,800 barrels per day would occur in three phases over a decade.

This is only a necessary first step in a long process–whether and how soon EnCana and Conoco get started on the work is, of course, dependent on oil prices recovering. Seeking regulatory approval confirms the scope of the project and sets the stage for potential expansion.

Decisions about refinery expansion are still to follow. The regulatory process is, as EnCana spokesmen have said since the news hit the wires, a long one. That EnCana is taking steps to boost productive capacity is, of itself, good news. As for what it means about the short- or even medium-term expectation for oil prices and activity, we’ll look for more confirming evidence of at least a bottoming for global economies. EnCana, a new member of the CE How They Rate coverage universe, is a buy up to USD50.

NAL Oil & Gas (TSX: NAE-U, OTC: NOIGF) announced the renewal of its CAD450 million credit facility with a syndicate of six North American banks.

As of Dec. 31, 2008, NAL had drawn CAD282 million (63 percent) of the facility, representing a net debt-to-12 months trailing cash flow ratio of 1.0 times. The next renewal is scheduled for April 2010. NAL expects that its effective interest rate in 2009 will be 4 percent to 4.5 percent.

At the end of 2008, NAL had total net debt, including convertible debentures, of CAD399 million outstanding, representing a total net debt-to-12 months trailing cash flow ratio of 1.28 times. NAL Oil & Gas is a buy up to USD10.

Gas/Propane

Arctic Glacier Income Fund (TSX: AG-U, OTC: AGUNF) announced the suspension of two executives based on the results of an internal investigation precipitated by the US Dept of Justice’s investigation into anti-competitive practices in the packaged ice industry.

Frank Larson, Executive Vice President, Operations and Gary Cooley, Vice President, Sales and Marketing of the fund’s operating subsidiary, Arctic Glacier Inc, have been suspended from their duties with pay. Based on the internal investigation, Arctic Glacier’s board concluded Mr. Larson and Mr. Cooley “may have violated certain of the company’s policies.” Sell Arctic Glacier Income Fund.

Real Estate Trusts

Calloway REIT (TSX: CWT-U, OTC: CWYUF) is issuing CAD150 million in senior unsecured debentures on a bought deal basis; the debentures will carry a coupon rate of 10.25 percent and will mature April 14, 2014. The REIT will use the proceeds to repurchase approximately CAD150 million owing on existing 4.51 percent debentures due Sept. 22, 2010. Calloway’s weighted average interest rate on all series of debentures will be approximately 6.9 percent. Calloway REIT is a buy up to USD10.

RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF) is issuing CAD180 million in unsecured debentures, which will bear an interest rate of 8.33 percent and mature April 3, 2014.

Net proceeds will be used to purchase, at par, CAD4.62 million of its Sept. 21, 2009 5.29 percent and CAD50.38 million of its March 24, 2010 4.938 percent unsecured debentures, to provide additional financial flexibility to its substantial liquidity position, to repay indebtedness incurred under its operating credit facilities, to fund development activities and future property acquisitions and for general trust purposes. RioCan REIT is a buy up to USD15.

Natural Resources

First Quantum Minerals (TSX: FM, OTC: FQVLF) completed a previously announced new share offering at CAD37 per share. Including the common shares issued on the exercise of the over-allotment option, First Quantum issued 9,343,750 common shares for aggregate gross proceeds of CAD345.7 million.
Net proceeds will be used to continue with First Quantum’s committed capital projects, to further strengthen its capital position and for general corporate purposes. First Quantum Minerals is a buy up to USD35.