Strong Yield on a Weak Yen

The Japanese economy has been in the tank for years. But Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seemed to be cutting through its years of stagnation as Japan’s key market benchmark shot up in 2013, his first year in office.

The Nikkei 225 posted its biggest annual rise in more than four decades last year, up 56.7%. Investors clearly thought that Abe’s “three arrows” – fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reform – would address many of the nation’s many challenges.

Driving that growth was a falling yen. The country’s currency fell 18% over the course of the year, making Japanese products much more attractive internationally. That helped the Japanese economy grow by 1.5% in 2013—not much, but its fastest pace in years.

But even as Abe unleashed a massive stimulus program, he still needed to address Japan’s national debt of nearly $10.5 trillion. To that end he helped usher in the country’s first sales tax increase in 17 years through the country’s parliament, boosting it from 5% to 8% in April.

Another 2% increase was planned for next year, but Japan’s gross domestic product shrank by 1.6% in the third quarter as Japanese consumers cut their spending in response. That’s put Japan’s economy back into recession for the first time in two years.

While Abe planned another sales tax increase for next year, bumping it up from 8% to 10%, he’s obviously having second thoughts and has said he will postpone it until April 2017, 18 months later than expected. To give the delay and his economic plan more legitimacy, and to shore up support, he has now called snap elections for next month. Abe may be looking for a new job come January.

But while this is the wrong time to make bets on the direction of the Japanese economy, there are opportunities given Abe has successfully driven down the value of the Japanese yen. Since he took office in December 2013, the yen has plunged 27% relative to the U.S dollar. That’s made Japanese exports extremely attractive, creating an interesting situation: Japanese exporters strengthening even as their share prices have been sluggish.

For example, shares of Toyota Motor Company are down 4.6% over the trailing year, while year-over-year revenues have risen by 16% and earnings per share are up by 89%. More than three-quarters of the automakers sales are outside of Japan, so every single yen change vis-à-vis the dollar results in a $297.3 million impact on operating income.

A nice result, at least if you’re an American investor, is the yield on Toyota’s shares has risen from about 1.9% to 2.7% today even though the payout has been little changed and earnings have actually been rising.

While that makes Toyota shares attractive, we think Canon is the better bet, especially for those seeking high yields from global companies – i.e., Global Income Edge subscribers. Currently yielding 4%, Canon (NYSE: CAJ) makes an array of copiers, cameras and printers with about 80% of its sales outside of Japan. As the yen dives, Canon’s earnings rise.

The earnings increase at Canon hasn’t been nearly as dramatic as at Toyota – Canon’s revenue is up by 7.4% year-over-year while EPS have grown by nearly 5% – but its customer base is much stickier. For instance, brand loyalty is a somewhat fickle thing with car buyers. Consumers that buy Canon’s cameras, on the other hand, tend to stick with that same brand and even generate more revenue for the company as they buy additional lens and other accessories for the device. Businesses which buy office printers and other equipment also tend to stick with the same supplier since replacing an office-full of equipment can be a pricy proposition.

At the same time that customer base – Canon has a 39% market share in Japan, 15% in the U.S. and 19% in the emerging markets – generates more revenue as they purchase accessories and service contracts. On the office side of things, Canon also generates revenue from its competitors. For instance, Hewlett-Packard uses Canon technology in its laser printers, resulting in about $6.4 billion in annual royalty revenue.

Largely thanks to loyal customers, Wall Street analysts are bullish on Canon’s long-term growth prospects, estimating annualized earnings growth of about 7.5% over the next five years. EPS is expected to increase by 9.5% in 2014 alone to reach$1.87 and another 10% next year to $2.06.

Risks exist, particularly as print volumes are falling at businesses and nonprofessional photographers are relying more on their smartphone cameras to capture those precious memories.

And competitors are always vying to develop the next hot technology that could tip Canon off its throne. That said, Canon has a large multinational presence, giving it a bird’s eye view of market needs and it’s spending about 9% of its revenue annually on research and development, making it one of the industry’s biggest R&D spenders. So while the market may be evolving, Canon has done a terrific job of evolving with it.

Offering a solid 4% yield and a stable business, Canon is a buy up to $37.

 

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