Putin’s Favorite People

Russia has not-so-covertly attacked Ukraine and thumbed its nose at the West. Vladimir Putin’s Soviet Nostalgia Tour has jailed domestic critics and banned most Western food imports. But there’s one group of Westerners Putin never seems to tire of: executives of giant oil companies willing to help him with the oil and gas production, which is how the regime earns most of the revenue it needs to prolong its misrule.

The likes of ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), BP (NYSE: BP), Total (NYSE: TOT) and Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) have made clear that it’s business as usual for them as they help the Kremlin develop offshore and shale reserves despite several rounds of mostly symbolic economic sanctions.

ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson, whose close relationship with Putin has been referred to as a “bromance,” turned up at an international energy conference in Moscow in June in disregard of requests from the US government, and has publicly opposed economic sanctions. Tillerson, who has parlayed his Russian ties into massive deals between ExxonMobil and Russia’s Rosneft to develop Russia’s Arctic and Far East resources, was awarded the Order of Friendship by Putin two years ago.

Undercutting the message of Western sanctions, ExxonMobil and Rosneft began drilling a $700 million offshore well in the Russian Arctic last month. Putin videoconferenced in to personally give the go order.

This the sort of work ostensibly banned under the latest round of sanctions announced on July 29, which specifically target exports of Western technology and expertise in Arctic, deepwater and shale drilling.

But, operating from the doctrine of Leave No Contract Behind, the sanctions exclude work already on order, like Exxon’s.

Oil services giant Schlumberger, which gets 5-7% of its revenue from Russia, warned this week that the new sanctions will shave 3 cents a share from third-quarter earnings estimated by analysts at $1.50 per share. But the company described the effect as “short-term,” while it shuffles people and equipment to comply with the sanctions without disrupting its Russian operations.

Meanwhile, BP is pressing ahead with a shale exploration venture with Rosneft in the Urals. BP owns nearly 20% of Rosneft, its consolation prize after a long and unhappy history in Russia.

While the latest round of sanctions has hardly had time to take effect, it’s already led some energy analysts to downgrade Russian production forecasts for 2015 and beyond.

Russia may be able to source some of the prohibited technology it needs in Asia. But it could also be further punished for its aggression and subversion in Ukraine.

This would hardly be a mortal blow to the multinationals that have stuck by Russia. But it would serve them right for collaborating with an increasingly repressive dictatorship and foreign aggressor.

As for the bigger picture, the deeper Russia gets involved in Ukraine the more its long-term reliability as a leading energy producer and exporter will come into question, given the potential for sterner sanctions and the likelihood that Ukraine would cut off Russian gas supplies to Europe if Russian troops attempt to occupy eastern Ukraine.

The longer this goes on, the better US liquefied natural gas will look to Europe as an alternative to long-term dependence on Russia’s Gazprom. And the more awkward Putin’s friendship will become for his Western corporate friends. 

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