Not Half Bad

Deciding when to cash out some big recent gains qualifies as one of life’s highest-quality problems. It’s one we’ve wrestled with over and over of late as our list of nine Best Buys, compiled in early March when the fun was just starting, went on to return 37 percent during the first six months of the year.

The larger portfolios also performed admirably, outstripping the sector. See In Focus for a full accounting of the first-half portfolio performance.

Our updated Best Buys list keeps six of its nine winners, while replacing three whose outsized gains have left less upside (though we continue to recommend at least a partial position in each for those who followed us in at a much lower price point.)

The three new Best Buys include industry stalwart and lightning rod Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI), the similarly massive Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) as well as MarkWest Energy Partners (NYSE: MWE). Each of these names has largely missed the past year’s rally yet kept investing and can now capitalize on improving fundamentals while offering an attractive relative yield.

This month’s Portfolio Update includes price target increases on many of our Best Buys and other recommendation. We’re just playing catch-up after the big recent rally, and these increases should not be interpreted as a bullish near-term call or as advice to immediately add exposure.

In fact, I’m more likely to agree with the subscriber in the last chat who, anticipating a pullback in the near-term, suggested selling covered calls expiring in the fall on his portfolio. But industry growth remains strong amid a domestic drilling boom and should keep propelling MLPs higher.

Of course almost every market participant now expects the same, which over the longer run can turn into a serious problem as expectations outrun reality. For some of the most popular MLPs that already appears to be the case, as argued here.

Inflated expectations aren’t the problem for Crestwood Midstream Partners (NYSE: CMLP). Its issue is a fully leveraged balance sheet and the big, costly negative-amortization loan it just took out from some venture funds. See more here on why this makes CMLP a Sell.    

But there are plenty of MLPs out there still worth buying, and we’re pleased that that’s again the case for longtime portfolio winners Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP) and Oiltanking Partners (NYSE: OILT). Kinder has played the turtle to Oiltanking’s hare but they’re both surfing the wave of  surging energy supply that’s not slowing down.

The sector on the whole, though, could still use a refreshing pause. Trade accordingly.

Below you will find this month’s Portfolio Action Summary as well as the updated Best Buys list.

Portfolio Action Summary

 

  • Crestwood Midstream Partners (NYSE: CMLP) downgraded to a Sell in the Growth Portfolio
  • Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP) upgraded to a Buy below $90
  • Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (NYSE: BWP) downgraded to a Hold from a Buy below $15
  • Alliance Holdings (NASDAQ: AHGP) buy below target raised to $77 from $68
  • DCP Midstream (NYSE: DPM) buy below target raised to $60 from $51
  • EnLink Midstream (NYSE: ENLC) buy below target raised to $44 from $40
  • Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) buy below target raised to $85 from $75
  • Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) buy below target raised to $66 from $52
  • Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) buy below target raised to $40 from $37
  • Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) buy below target raised to $90 from $77
  • MarkWest Energy Partners (NYSE: MWE) buy below target raised to $77 from $70
  • Oiltanking Partners (NYSE:OILT) buy below target raised to $55 after 2:1 split, from $75
  • Sunoco Logistics (NYSE: SXL) buy below target raised to $48 from $45.50
  • Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) buy below target raised to $52 from $46
  • UGI (NYSE: UGI) buy below target raised to $57 from $50

The New Best Buys List:

1. Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD)

2. Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP)

3. Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE)

4. Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE: SXL)

5. Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI)

6. MarkWest Energy Partners (NYSE: MWE)

7. EnLink Midstream (NYSE: ENLC)

8. Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP)

9. AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU)





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