Infosys: From Turnaround to Growth

When I last wrote about Infosys (NYSE: INFY) a year ago, I framed my opinion in terms of a turnaround play. The Indian technology mainstay had been posting disappointing results as a result of a slowdown in IT spending and aggressive global competition. So, despite the fact that it was averaging 13 percent annual compound growth in revenues and 10 percent annual compound growth in net income, its shares had been pushed down to their lowest point in nearly five years.

In order to right the foundering ship, the company’s board of directors pulled N.R. Murthy, one of the company’s original founders, out of retirement to return as chief executive officer. Murthy, who served as the company’s CEO from 1981 to 2002 and its chairman from 1981 to 2011, made a splash right off the bat, pledging to right the ship within three years, drop prices if needed and focus on cutting costs to help improve margins. He also announced an average 8 percent pay raise for Infosys employees, even though he said he would consider slowing growth in headcount.

Murthy has clearly made headway towards those goals, stepping down last month after only one year as CEO and replaced by Vishal Sikka, who has said he will maintain the current initiatives while looking for additional ways to improve efficiency. Infosys shares soared by nearly 30 percent in that time as revenue growth rose 11.5 percent to USD8.2 billion and 92 to new clients where added, including 20 new deals in the final quarter of the company’s fiscal 2014 alone. Earnings per share rose from $3.02 in fiscal 2013 to $3.06 in the latest fiscal year.

Margins also improved on a year-over-year basis to 25.5 percent as Murthy stuck by the company’s premium pricing strategy. Increased automation in software development and a revamped system of measuring engineer productivity helped significantly reduce costs while not hampering innovation. A number of senior executives departed when the CEO job turned over, helping to reduce salary expenses even as a number of new engineers were recruited.

Infosys now has more than 800 long-term clients on the books and appears to be in an excellent competitive position. However, it expects a challenging fiscal 2015 and forecasts that revenue will likely only grow by between 7 percent and 9 percent.

Infosys enjoys one of the strongest financial positions of any IT outsourcing firms. It has no net debt on its books, a cash cushion of nearly USD4.5 billion and more than USD2 billion in free cash flow in its last fiscal year. Analysts also remain upbeat on the company’s prospects, with median forecast earnings growth of 9.2 percent this year to $3.34 per share and 10.8 percent next year to $3.70.

IT outsourcing services should see demand pick up with the continued improvement in the business environment.

A company already well into its around, I still rate Infosys a buy under 60.

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