What’s Hot and Not in Energy

There are many ways to squeeze some warmth and power from of a cooling universe, and most are represented among energy securities. So while we can say generically that “energy stocks” have slightly lagged a stalled and twitchy market, that doesn’t tell us very much, because it lumps drillers with refiners and the makers of solar panels.

One way to survey the momentum of various energy subgroups is via the excellent StockCharts Technical Rank scoring system. This ranks components of the S&P benchmark indexes as well as most exchange traded  funds (ETFs) based on objective measures of their relative momentum over three separate time frames, with the longer-term trend counting the most. Because the rankings are updated daily, they offer an illuminating snapshot of what’s been hot and not over the last year or so, but also of what’s been particularly popular or despised much more recently.

Among the hundreds of US traded ETFs, the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) scored  a 53 as of March 26, suggesting middle-of-the pack momentum that, given the current state of the pack, is hardly inspiring. That’s nearly a full quartile behind the S&P 500 SPDRs (NYSE: SPY), which were at 75, meaning the large-cap benchmark has fared better than 75 percent of the various other market baskets.

But there are energy plays that have fared better than both the XLE and the SPY. The PowerShares Global Clean Energy Portfolio (NYSE: PBD), propelled by such speculative highfliers as Tesla Motors  (Nasdaq: TSLA) and GT Advanced Technologies (Nasdaq: GTAT), currently boasts a StockCharts Technical Rank score above 96. The PowerShares S&P SmallCap Energy Portfolio (Nasdaq: PSCE) is close behind with a 95.

The Smaller the Better
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The Power Share DWA Energy Momentum Portfolio (NYSE: PXI) scores a 93. That ETF is itself an attempt to identify energy stocks with promising momentum.  PXI’s  top 10 holdings as of Monday included Energy Strategist portfolio picks Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR), Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL), Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC), Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP). Investing alongside fickle followers of market fashion is the risk we have incurred by getting lucky with these winners.

Further down we find the Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSE: OIH) at 65 and the iShares MSCI Global Energy Producers Fund (NYSE: FILL) at 43. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) account for nearly a quarter of this ETF’s assets, whereas investors have clearly had the fill of growth-challenged giants lacking meaningful  exposure  to the fast-developing domestic shale basins.

The Global X Uranium ETF (NYSE:URA) is at 41, threading  the thin line between unloved and hated. The JP Morgan Alerian MLP Index ETN (NYSE: AMJ) is a little shy of 39, while the once popular Kayne Anderson Energy Total Return Fund (NYSE: KYE) has less momentum than 95 percent of exchange-traded funds.

This probably speaks to investors’ increasing  preference for investing in MLPs directly rather than through ETFs or closed-end funds, with their tracking issues and tax inefficiencies. But it’s also a reminder that the S&P 500 has provided more than double the return of MLPs since the start of 2012 even after accounting for the partnerships’ higher distributions.

To sum up, small caps and alternative energy plays are hot; while mega-caps and MLPs are not. Fair or not, lasting or not, at this point the disparity is pretty well entrenched.  And when the market shows its hand like that, it pays to peek.

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