Up with Assets

Few Canada-based exploration and production (E&P) companies can match gas-focused Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF) long-term growth profile, whether you’re looking back or looking forward.

The key is that Peyto is essentially self-contained: It owns land, production and processing assets that have supported and will continue to underpin steady, consistent output, financial and dividend growth.

The CE Portfolio Aggressive Holding’s conventional asset base and great well-head performance allow it to generate some of the most efficient production in the Canadian E&P space.

Equally unique in its own industry is Conservative Holding Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, NYSE: BEP), the biggest publicly traded pure-play renewable power companies in North America and among the biggest in the world.

Brookfield Renewable continues to add to its power-generation portfolio in a low-price environment, with projects that combine stable, contracted revenues and strong prospects for long-term cash flow growth.

Peyto set new production and reserves per share records in 2013 while delivering a 76 percent operating margin and a 25 percent profit margin.

Fourth-quarter production was up 35 percent, also 35 percent per share, from 299 million cubic feet equivalent per day MMcfe/d, or 49,754 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in the fourth quarter of 2012 to 404 MMcfe/d, or 67,296 boe/d, for the fourth quarter of 2013.

Annual production increased 33 by percent, or 26 percent per share, from 267 MMcfe/d in 2012 to 356 MMcfe/d in 2013.

Proved Producing (PP), Total Proved (TP) and Proved plus Probable Additional (P+P) reserves increased by 12 percent, 10 percent and 19 percent to 1.1, 1.8, and 2.8 trillion cubic feet equivalent (TCFe), respectively, and were up by equal percentages on a per-share basis.

Peyto also maintained industry leading total cash costs. Royalties, operating costs, transportation, general and administrative (G&A) and interest expense totaled CAD1.06 per thousand cubic feet equivalent (MCFe), or CAD6.36 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) for both the fourth quarter and on average for 2013, in line with the CAD1.05 per MCFe average for 2012.

Funds from operations (FFO) were CAD438 million, or CAD2.94 per share, up by 34 percent compared to FFO per share of CAD2.19 for 2012. Fourth-quarter FFO per share were up 35 percent from CAD0.62 to CAD0.84.

Peyto invested a record CAD578 million in 2013, a 28 percent increase compared to 2012 organic CAPEX of CAD452 million, to build 38,400 boe/d at a cost of CAD15,100 per boe/d.

P+P finding, development and acquisition (FD&A) cost was half the field netback. All-in FD&A cost for PP, TP and P+P reserves were CAD2.35 per MCFe, CAD2.23 per MCFe and CAD1.86 per MCFe, or CAD11.16 per boe, respectively, including changes in Future Development Capital (FDC), while the average field netback was CAD3.65 per MCFe, or CAD21.89 per boe.

Management reported net asset value (NAV) per share of CAD38 as of Dec. 31, 2013.

Peyto paid CAD131 million, or CAD0.88 per share, in dividends to shareholders during the year.

Peyto drilled and completed 99 new gas wells, built two new gas plants at Oldman North and Brazeau River, expanded a third plant at Swanson, acquired 49 sections of new multi-zone mineral rights and purchased over 170 square miles of surveyed land.

For every well drilled, two new drilling locations were recognized in Peyto’s reserve report, further expanding the company’s NAV.

The combination of high asset quality and low-cost production defines Peyto. Its wells continue to rank among the top in the North American natural gas E&P space, and recent results for its Wilrich, Falher, Notikewin and Cardium wells should drive production toward 90,000 boe/d by the end of 2015.

Peyto Exploration & Development is a buy under USD33.

Brookfield Renewable management made the most of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2013 earnings announcement, revealing good operating and financial results, a solid distribution increase and a significant acquisition.

Operating and financial numbers reflect the impact of recent acquisitions as well as more normal generating conditions for Brookfield Renewable’s projects. The distribution increase suggests management is confident of current and future prospects. And the acquisition–another chapter in this invest-to-grow story–should support the new rate and provide part of the foundation for increases to come.

Total generation for the fourth quarter was 5,268 gigawatt-hours (GWh), an increase 30 percent from the prior corresponding period. The hydroelectric portfolio generated 4,550 GWh, up 36.8 percent year over year and in line with the long-term average.

The increase reflected strong performance of new assets and a return to more normal hydro conditions compared to an unusually dry fourth quarter of 2012.

Recent acquisitions and assets reaching commercial operations within the last year resulted in generation increasing by 655 GWh. Management noted that reservoir levels on a portfolio basis are in line with long-term average conditions for this time of year.

The wind portfolio generated 503 GWh, below the long-term average of 617 GWh and 20 GWh higher than the prior year as a result of new facilities acquired in the western US.

Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were USD272 million, up from USD195 million for the fourth quarter of 2012.

Funds from operations (FFO) were USD137 million, USD0.52 per unit, up from USD74 million or USD0.28 per unit, a year ago. The fourth-quarter payout ratio based on FFO was 69.7 percent.

Full-year generation was up 39.4 percent to 22,222 GWh, exceeding the long-term average by 386 GWh. Adjusted EBITDA was USD1.208 billion, up from USD852 million in 2012. FFO were USD594 million, or USD2.24 per unit, up from USD347 million, or USD1.31 per unit, in 2012. The 2013 payout ratio based on FFO was 63.9 percent.

The quarterly distribution rate of USD0.3875, or USD1.55 per on an annualized basis, represents an increase of 6.9 percent above the USD0.3625, or USD1.45 annualized, paid on Jan. 31, 2014.

The LP’s board declared a quarterly distribution of USD0.2583 per unit, payable on March 31, 2014, to unitholders of record as of Feb. 28, 2014. This reflects the distribution increase and is pro-rated for the two-month period in connection with the change in quarterly record and payment dates that was announced in November 2013.

The next quarterly dividend of USD0.3875 per unit will be paid on June 30, 2014, to shareholders of record as of May 31, 2014.

The new annualized rate of USD1.55 per unit represents 69.1 percent of 2013 FFO per share, consistent with management’s policy of targeting a distribution in the range of 60 percent to 70 percent of FFO and annual increases of 3 percent to 5 percent.

Finally, Brookfield Renewable has reached an agreement to acquire from an affiliate of LS Power a 33 percent economic and 50 percent voting interest in the 417 megawatt (MW) Safe Harbor hydroelectric facility on the Susquehanna River in Pennsylvania.

Safe Harbor generates an average of 1,100 GWh annually and possesses storage capabilities supporting daily peaking. It’s one of the largest conventional hydroelectric facilities in the PJM Interconnection market, which offers multiple revenue streams, including energy, capacity, ancillaries and renewable energy credits.

The total purchase price for the transaction of USD289 million will be funded through available liquidity and capital from Brookfield Renewable and its institutional partners. The transaction, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, is expected to close during the first quarter.

One point of concern is that the majority of Safe Harbor’s generation output is exposed to the merchant power market.

Brookfield Renewable’s existing portfolio is highly contracted and diversified.  As of Dec. 31, 2013, contracted output on a proportionate basis for 2014 stood at approximately 93 percent.

A significant decline in contracted output as a percentage of total generation–say, below 80 percent–due to the acquisition of additional merchant assets or the expiration of existing power-purchase agreements without corresponding hedging would represent a potential threat to Brookfield Renewable’s recent track record.

Brookfield Renewable has ample liquidity to fund more growth in 2014, with cash and credit facilities of approximately USD1.2 billion. Management refinanced approximately USD3 billion of existing debt during 2013, reducing borrowing costs and extending maturities in the process.

The company is currently finalizing terms of purchase for the state-owned Bord Gais Energy in Ireland, the energy business of which includes a wind portfolio with an operating capacity expected to exceed 500 MW by 2015. Management expects a deal to be reached in the first half of 2014.

In January Brookfield Renewable and its institutional partners completed the acquisition of a previously announced 85 MW of hydroelectric generation, including a 70 MW portfolio in Maine and the remaining 50 percent interest in a 30 MW facility in California.

And construction of the 45 MW Kokish River hydro project in western Canada is nearing completion, with commissioning of the facility expected in the second quarter.

Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners is a buy under USD34.

For more information on Peyto, go to How They Rate under Oil and Gas. Click here to go to Peyto’s company website.

Click here to go to Peyto’s Yahoo! Finance page for its Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) symbol and here for its US over-the-counter (OTC) listing. Both links include a wealth of information and data. The page for the OTC symbol includes a link to Yahoo! Finance’s very useful “Key Statistics” page, whereas the TSX symbol page does not.

Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners is tracked under Electric Power. Click here to go to Brookfield Renewable’s company website. Click here to go to its Yahoo! Finance page for its TSX listing, here for its New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) listing. The latter link includes access to the “Key Statistics” page.

Peyto is a good-sized company with a market capitalization of CAD5.4 billion. Brookfield Renewable is the largest pure-play renewable energy company in North America, with a market capitalization of CAD4.2 billion. Both stocks have plenty of liquidity on both sides of the border, both in TSX and US-listed symbols.

Peyto trades on the TSX under the symbol PEY and on the US OTC market under the symbol PEYUF. Brookfield Renewable trades on the TSX under the symbol BEP-U and on the NYSE under the symbol BEP.

Peyto is covered by 20 Bay Street and Wall Street analysts. Fourteen analysts rate the stock a “buy,” while four rate it a “hold.” Two analysts rate the stock a “sell.”

The average 12-month price target among the 18 analysts who provide such a figure is CAD39.44, implying upside from a CAD34.91 closing price on March 5, including an annual dividend rate of CAD0.96 per share, of 15.7 percent.

Brookfield Renewable is covered by 12 analysts, eight of whom rates the stock a “buy,” three of whom rate the stock a “hold” and one of whom rates the stock a “sell.”

The average 12-month price target among the 11 analysts who provide such a figure is CAD32.68. Brookfield Renewable closed at CAD31.49 on March 5 on the TSX. Including a current annualized dividend rate of CAD1.55, the stock would post a total return of 8.7 percent based on analysts’ consensus forecast.

As is the case with all stocks in the Canadian Edge coverage universe, you get the same ownership whether you buy in the US or Canada. These stocks are priced in and pay dividends in Canadian dollars. Appreciation in the loonie will raise dividends as well as the value of your shares.

Dividends paid by Peyto are 100 percent qualified for US income tax purposes. Its dividends are taxed at the now-permanent Bush-era rates of 5 percent to 15 percent for investors’ first USD450,000 a year of income for couples and USD400,000 for single filers. Above that the maximum tax rate is 20 percent.

Canadian investors enjoy favorable tax status for Peyto. For US investors, dividends paid into IRAs aren’t subject to 15 percent Canadian withholding tax, though they are withheld at a 15 percent rate if held outside of an IRA.

Dividend taxes withheld from US non-IRA accounts can be recovered as a credit by filing a Form 1116 with your US income taxes. The amount of recovery allowed per year depends on your own tax situation.

Brookfield Renewable is treated as a partnership for US and Canadian tax purposes. As a partnership, Brookfield Renewable is a so-called “flow through” for US and Canadian tax purposes; in other words, it isn’t subject to tax. Rather, its income is subject to tax in the hands of its shareholders. Because it pays no corporate tax, withholding tax may still apply to IRAs.

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