Raising the Ante on Red-Hot Best Buys

We’re just about back to square one on the year with energy stocks, which isn’t bad at all considering their strong finishing kick at the end of 2013 and the likelihood of better days ahead if high energy prices stick around.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) was still off 1.5 percent year-to-date as of Wednesday (the cutoff date for numbers throughout this story), dragged down by Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and Conoco Phillips (NYSE: COP), though even these laggards have traded better of late. We remain bullish on these Conservative Portfolio holdings.

The racier SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (NYSE: XOP), made up mostly of midcap and small-cap drillers, is now 1 percent in the green for 2014, having registered its highest close since early November on Monday. Like our own portfolios, it has benefited from the performance of Eagle Ford champs EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) and Carrizo Oil and Gas (NYSE: CRZO), now up 11 and 9 percent, respectively, on the year, as well as Marcellus moneymaker EQT (NYSE: EQT), which is up nearly 12 percent in 2014.

As it happens, those three names were among the dozen best buys we outlined in the year’s first issue (see The Best Buys for 2014, from Jan. 9). And while that list is certainly not batting 1.000 at this point, we’re encouraged by the number of hits it’s piled up.

A rundown of how our best buys have fared so far this year is below. In many cases, we’re raising our buy thresholds to encourage continued accumulation of the strongest energy stocks with the best fundamentals.

Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI) was our top pick based on its near-term momentum, and the stock promptly cracked in the successive selloffs that roiled the market last month. By Jan. 28, we felt the need to reassure subscribers that CBI’s business prospects were unlikely to be affected by turmoil in emerging markets, and that “a dip to $70 would be a gift. The stock tagged an intraday low of $70.76 on Feb. 3 and hasn’t looked back, getting just about back to even on the year after reporting stronger than expected Q4 earnings. CBI’s $28 billion backlog is bulging with new awards for projects tied to the US LNG and petrochemical boom, bearing out our belief that the company will be a major beneficiary of the shale gas profusion. But CBI is also cashing in on refinery projects around the world and getting more heavily involved in China’s buildout of nuclear reactors. The stock remains modestly below our price target, but perhaps not for long. Buy CBI below $84.

Carrizo was the second name on that best buys list, and has obliged with a February rally culminating in a new five-year high following a strong quarterly report that highlighted the strong growth in productivity and reserves from the company’s prime Eagle Ford acreage.  With those wells driving expected crude production growth of 50 percent in 2014, we’re raising our price target on shares to take advantage of this still promising growth story. Set in December, it’s already been overrun. Buy CRZO below $54.

Recent portfolio addition Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) has gained 11 percent so far in 2014, bolstered by the rising prices of natural gas liquids that it gathers, processes and trades. It reported strong quarterly results on Feb. 13 propelled by strong fractionation and liquefied petroleum gas export profits, and should do even better in early 2014, setting up the possibility that it could exceed its promised dividend growth of more than 25 percent by a fair margin. The stock is bumping up right against our buy target set last month, but remains an excellent investment at current levels. Buy TRGP below the newly increased maximum of $105.

Williams (NYSE: WMB) is up 7 percent year-to-date, and is marginally more attractive now that the midstream giant has agreed  to give activist hedge funds two seats on its board of directors. Earnings were largely in line with expectations, and the company continues to forecast annual dividend growth of 20 percent the next two years. The recent announcement of a $1.2 billion dropdown of Williams’ Canadian assets to its sponsored MLP will only improve its return profile and cost of capital. Williams remains the preeminent midstream play on the northeastward shift in US energy production to the Marcellus and the Utica.  With the stock bumping up against its maximum buy point, we’re raising it. Buy WMB below $46.

The Marcellus also continues to pile up profits for EQT, a prolific producer in the play’s wet-gas core that has seen its rapid growth juiced by the rising prices of natural gas liquids. Production and cash flow surged more than 40 percent in 2014, and sales output is forecast to grow another 24 percent in 2014. EQT remains among the lowest cost Marcellus operators, with upside if its adjacent Utica foothold proves more productive than the market currently expects. Sponsorship of the fast-growing gathering MLP EQT Midstream (NYSE: EQM) provides EQT with low-cost capital and additional avenues for growth.  With the stock now well above our price target we’re raising it. Buy EQT below $110.

Marcellus dry-gas champ Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE: COG) won’t require a price target hike after disappointing the market with a forecast of an output slowdown in the first half of this year, as it shifts to pad drilling with longer lead times. But, as described elsewhere in this issue and in Monday’s portfolio update in The Energy Letter, the long-term story of strong production gains, rising free cash flow and infrastructure improvements that should shrink recently high regional discounts on the gas Cabot sells remains intact. The fact that the share price is down nearly 9 percent on the year simply makes the value proposition that much better. Buy COG below $42.50.

Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) topped fourth-quarter earnings estimates to put an exclamation point on a transformative year that saw the gas driller invest $6 billion in promising oil acreage in the Eagle Ford and just about recoup that cost with the wildly popular spinoff of its midstream assets into a new MLP in a partnership with Crosstex (Nasdaq: XTXI), as well as the recently announced sale of its conventional Canadian wells for $2.8 billion. The Eagle Ford acquisition and the midstream spinoff should significantly boost the company’s cash flow, allowing it to increase production perhaps 10 percent annually without taking on any debt. The stock is up 3 percent on the year. Buy DVN below $67.

EOG just continues to perform, delivering another set of quarterly results that surpassed analysts’ expectations, and setting a 2014 goal of increasing overall production by 11.5 percent and crude output by 27 percent. With its Eagle Ford drilling program continuing to pay off so handsomely, the company won’t invest in gas drilling this year, content to see its natgas output drop 6 percent. EOG also set a 2-for-1 stock split and raised its modest dividend by a third. Beyond the Eagle Ford, EOG is also making good progress on crude wells in the Bakken and the Permian.  Now that the stock has surpassed our latest buy limit, another increase is overdue. Buy EOG below $200.

Leading oil services provide Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) continued to deliver steady revenue growth and market share gains alongside relentlessly rising margins in quarterly results delivered in mid-January.  Management forecast “solidly double-digit” earnings growth in 2014, and you can read the rest of the good news in the portfolio update at the bottom of The Energy Letter for Jan. 21. The stock has continued to outperform as well, gaining 3 percent on the year while the oil services group has only managed to stay even. If management is right that the market share and margin gains are far from done, the stock has room to run, aided by share repurchases from ample free cash flow. Buy SLB below $100.

Crude gatherer and fuels shipper Sunoco Logistics (NYSE: SXL) is up 10 percent in 2014, while the Alerian MLP Index has merely managed to tread water. Last week it reported an 8 percent year-over-year increase in distributable cash flow and boosted its distribution 5 percent sequentially, leaving SXL on track to match last year’s 22 percent growth in the payout to unitholders. The partnership is capitalizing on new crude shipping pipelines in Texas while building up takeaway capacity for natural gas liquids from the Marcellus, including a very promising upcoming project to connect them to its export hub near Philadelphia. Though the current yield is down to a modest 3.3 percent, the rapid distribution growth leaves plenty of room for capital gains. Buy SXL on any dips back below $80.

Or last two best buys from last month’s list were the ones with the weakest near-term market sentiment, and while their long-term prospects remain strong the recent road has been rocky. First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) was down 13 percent on the year in early February, then rallied strongly to hold a 6 percent 2014 gain heading into Tuesday’s earning report only to miss estimates and provide disappointing near-term guidance. Those results produced a 9 percent daily loss and a small deficit on the year, but shares erased most of those losses Thursday. The action suggests investors may finally be looking past typically volatile fluctuations in revenue bookings to the continued efficiency gains that keep enhancing the competitiveness of First Solar’s utility-scale projects. First Solar is due to issue its annual forecast at an analyst meeting on March 19, and while we have no inside information into its plans the stock action leaves us cautiously optimistic. We can afford to be, with a 53 percent gain since the late-August entry. Buy FSLR below $67.     

Deep-water rig operator Seadrill (NYSE: SDRL) has caused subscribers considerable angst with its recent slump, and matters were not helped when the company this week reported in-line results but signaled that the recent slowdown in demand for offshore rigs would be more protracted than it previously acknowledged, possibly lasting through next year. The company also said that, as long as the downturn persists, it sees no point in further increasing a dividend that already yields more than 10 percent, preferring instead to husband the cash for future increases or share repurchases. But management was also adamant that no distribution cut is in the cards, and given that its mostly high-end rigs are almost fully booked for this year, with 66 percent of capacity chartered out for 2015, there is no reason to doubt this promise. Many analysts also vouchsafed for the dividend in the wake of the results. We’d further note that the selling on the earnings news never took out the low from the week before, and that even in its weakened state the stock has returned 245 percent over the seven years we have been recommending it. There’s plenty more where that came from given a secure double-digit yield, huge contract backlog and the constant need to replace depleting wells with new ones, mostly offshore. We’re not backing away from this one at all. Buy SDRL below $50.

Though the above list has clearly outperformed, it still excludes such recently strong portfolio picks as American Railcar Industries (Nasdaq: ARII), up 45 percent on the year as short-sellers begin to capitulate, liquefied natural gas shipper GasLog (NYSE: GLOG), which has rallied 26 percent so far this year, land rig supplier Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP), which has advanced 15 percent in 2014, and EQT Midstream, which has surged 13 percent since December. Of course, we’re still recommending such recent weaklings Chevron and WPX (NYSE: WPX). You can’t win them all. But for the moment there’s lots to like in how the game is progressing.

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