Betting on a Turn

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (NYSE: EEM) seems to have halted its slide.  The index bottomed out year-to-date on February 3, when it was down 11.2 percent. Since then, it has gained 1.5 percent, but bargains in the emerging markets still abound.

As I discussed in “A Plan, Not a Panic” two weeks ago, emerging markets are in much better economic shape today than they were even just a few years ago, much less during the currency crisis that peaked in 1998. Foreign exchange reserves are generally much more robust, budget deficits are narrower if they exist at all and, so far at least, the full-blown currency war that many were predicting last year isn’t likely to breakout.

With rationality finally setting in, this is a terrific time to do a little bargain hunting in the emerging markets.

The most obvious play here is the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index itself. Covering China (18.8 percent of assets), South Korea (16 percent), Taiwan (12 percent) and Brazil (10.2 percent) with smaller positions spanning Asia and Europe, the fund is most exposed to any shift in sentiment.

The fund is currently trading at just 10.2 times forward one-year earnings, well below its average of about 18 times over the past two decades. On a price-to-sales basis it is even more attractive valued at just 1.03 times; the last time the index was this cheap on a sales basis was early 2009.

So while there are always dangers in trying to call a bottom to any market move, valuations alone are attractive enough to start pulling bargain hunters back in.

A broadly diversified play on an emerging market turnaround, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a great buy up to 45, which leaves plenty of room to run back to the average.

For those who can tolerate a bit more risk, you can also drill down and make more country-specific bets.

At this point my favorite would be iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund (NYSE: EWY).

South Korea is something of a special case; despite having a highly developed economy, it is still lumped in with emerging markets.

South Korea’s per capital income last year totaled more than USD33,000, well ahead of Spain and Italy and closing the gap between France and Japan. The South Korean economy is also the 15th largest in the world, boasts low unemployment and almost nonexistent inflation and ranks 7th in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index.

That said, South Korea still uses capital controls to help protect its won. There is limited currency convertibility outside the country, essentially forcing traders to use Korean institutions. There are also some limits on foreign access to Korean equity markets, essentially making it more difficult to move money out of the country.

Because of those restrictions, MSCI (NYSE: MSCI), the company which is the primary arbiter of what is and isn’t an emerging market, still lumps South Korea in with the emerging markets. That creates an advantage for market watchers, though.

Since South Korea is included in almost every emerging market index, any time those countries take a hit South Korea falls with them. But given the fact that it has more developed market characteristics than not, it’s also usually one of the first to turn.

So far in February, there are early signs of improvement as iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund has crossed both its 10-day and 200-day moving averages. Its relative strength index reading has also closed in on its average reading, all of which point to the fund’s turn gaining momentum.

IShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund is a riskier bet on a turn, but it should pay off up to 63.

Portfolio Updates

Shares of NagaCorp (Hong Kong: 3918) gained more than 5.5 percent in Hong Kong trading last night, following another year of strong growth for the Cambodian casino operator.

Group revenue rose by 24 percent to USD344.9 million, as public floor gaming table revenue grew by 15.3 percent year-over-year to USD89.9 million and gaming machine revenue was up 15.9 percent to USD101.9 million.

Registrations with the casino’s loyalty program grew to more 34,500 members over the course of the year, allowing more targeted marketing efforts. The premium mass gaming areas also continue to ramp up following their opening last July, helping fuel the strong growth. The addition of 73 gaming machines following the openings of the Saigon Palace and the Aristocrat Private Club were the main drivers of gaming machine revenue growth.

VIP revenue showed the best growth, up by 40.3 percent to USD133.2 million, thanks to a sharp increase in junket business. VIP rollings increased by 21 percent to USD4.6 percent, because of both higher VIP traffic and higher quality players, taking up both the average bet and win rate.

Non-gaming revenue, which includes food, drinks and rooms, gained 11.2 percent to USD20 million, as a result of higher average room rates.

Net profit grew by 24 percent to reach USD140.3 million with earnings per share of 6.28 US cents. Based on those results, the board proposed a final dividend of 2.38 US cents, which combined with the interim dividend, takes Naga’s full-year dividend up to 4.31 US cents. The company’s total payout ratio for the year came to 70 percent of net profit.

The company expects to continue benefiting from the stable macroeconomic environment in Cambodia and continued growth in tourism to the country. The number of direct flights to Cambodia increased from 360 in 2012 to 396 by the end of 2013 and the company is working with travel agents to charter flights to Phnom Penh from under-served countries. The company also plans to charter flights between Macau and the Cambodian capital to claim a greater share of the junket business in that region.

Management continues to plan for the completion of the Naga2 complex sometime in 2016. It is also working to establish geographic diversification, entering into an agreement with the Administration of Primorsky Territory of the Russian Federation to develop a casino property in Vladivostok. The project is still in the planning phases, though it calls for NagaCorp to invest at least USD350 million and complete the first phases of development by 2018.

 

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