Canada’s Job Growth Beats Expectations

The pace of hiring in Canada during November greatly exceeded economists’ projections. The Canadian economy added 21,600 jobs last month versus a consensus forecast of just 12,000 jobs. That kept the unemployment rate at 6.9 percent for the third consecutive month, which is the lowest level since late 2008.

But while the headline numbers seem worth celebrating, the details underpinning those data show an economy that’s still trying to find its footing. On a year-to-date basis, for instance, employment growth has averaged 14,900 jobs per month, which is a marked deceleration from the average of 25,900 jobs added each month in 2012.

Additionally, the labor force participation rate remains at a 10-year low of 66.4 percent. This shows that a subset of the unemployed have simply given up on looking for work, as well as the fact that job creation has failed to keep up with population growth.

At the very least, however, the gulf between the participation rate’s pre-recession high and the current cycle’s low is not nearly as wide as it is in the US. Canada’s participation rate hit a high of 67.8 percent in early 2008, so the current figure is just 1.4 percentage points below that. By contrast, the participation rate in the US hit a high of 66.4 percent in late 2006 and is currently at 63 percent, just off its low, for a substantial difference of 3.4 percentage points.

The vast majority of Canada’s latest job gain was driven by growth in part-time employment, which was up by 20,000, while full-time employment grew by just 1,400. Part-time jobs tend to be both lower paying and of a lesser quality than full-time positions.

These numbers tend to be volatile on a month-to-month basis, so longer-term trends do a better job of putting these numbers in their proper context. On a trailing-year basis, full-time employment has grown by an average of 9,300 jobs per month, while over the past three years it’s grown by an average of 17,900 jobs per month.

Though that shows a clear decline underway, part of the story may simply be the government’s recent fiscal restraint. Public-sector employment is down by 1.2 percent year over year, including November’s drop of 29,000 jobs in this area. This downward trend in public-sector hiring is even more pronounced over the trailing nine-month period, during which it’s fallen by 7 percent, or 69,000 positions.

Meanwhile, private-sector employment is up 1.6 percent, or 187,000 jobs, over that same period, with 31,400 jobs added during November. That includes the addition of 25,000 jobs in Canada’s ailing manufacturing sector, though the level of employment in that area is still down by 2.5 percent from a year ago.

Economists with CIBC World Markets believe this means that businesses are not nearly as cautious as central bank policymakers might assume. While private-sector payrolls aren’t exactly expanding at a robust rate, companies are still investing in future growth.

Another data point that can presage future hiring is the average number of hours worked. That number fell by two-tenths of a percentage point in November, so that means the fourth quarter is currently tracking lower than the prior quarter’s results.

Fortunately, a surprisingly strong US jobs report, which we detailed in our latest issue, suggests that the economy of Canada’s largest trading partner is finally showing clearer signs of strengthening. And that could augur well for Canada’s export activity in the year ahead.

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