Canada’s Economy Gets Energized

One month of data isn’t exactly a trend, but investors in Canadian stocks, particularly those focused on the resource sector, should find at least some reassurance in the country’s latest figure for gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

According to Statistics Canada, the economy grew 0.3 percent in August, greatly exceeding the consensus forecast of 0.1 percent, based on a Bloomberg survey of 19 economists. And on a year-over-year basis, the economy grew at a rate of 2 percent, the fastest growth in more than a year. This performance followed an increase of 0.6 percent in July, as the economy rebounded from a 0.5 percent decline in June, due to historic flooding in Alberta and a province-wide strike in Quebec.

These results provide a timely solace after the Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered its forecasts for the economy last week. Of course, we had been expecting this action, as it merely brought the central bank’s projections in line with its private-sector peers. But given the media attention that surrounds any change in the BoC’s forecasts, from a sentiment standpoint, the bank’s actions tend to cast a gloomier pall than the individual forecasts of institutional economists.

Although the output of Canada’s goods-producing industries is dwarfed by the service sector, energy producers in the oil and gas extraction industries were responsible for nearly half the growth in August. Output from oil and gas extraction increased 2.8 percent in August, while the industry’s support activities mirrored this rise. This area of the economy grew 7.6 percent year over year, which puts it well ahead of most other industries.

The data also showed further evidence of a potentially overheated real estate market, with the output of real estate agents and brokers up 2.5 percent in August, the sixth consecutive monthly increase. However, high prices and rising mortgage rates could eventually cool this activity.

Among the larger industries, manufacturing was by far the weakest performer, with a year-over-year decline of 2.1 percent. August output fell 0.3 percent following July’s increase of 0.9 percent. Non-durable goods were down 0.7 percent, due to a fall in chemical manufacturing. Meanwhile, durable goods manufacturing was unchanged overall.

Economists with CIBC World Markets credit the growth in GDP to historic highs in oil and gas production following a lull at the year’s outset. In particular, they point to new production from Canada’s Kearl oil sands project, where output reached 40,000 barrels per day in August, equivalent to around 2 percent of total Canadian oil production.

And industry insiders suggest production there may have doubled in September, which would bode well for the next round of GDP numbers. CIBC says this pace of growth, along with support from other sectors such as retail and real estate, could put the economy on track to grow 2.8 percent during the third quarter, a full point higher than the BoC’s recent projection.

For now, a Bloomberg survey of private-sector economists shows the consensus for third-quarter growth stands at 2 percent, though this could soon rise once the latest numbers are digested. Even then, the Canadian economy still faces significant challenges, so it’s too soon to say what even a stronger-than-expected third quarter could portend for the year ahead.

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