The Falling Aussie Provides Necessary Stimulus

Back in early May, when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered its short-term cash rate by a quarter point, to a 50-year low of 2.75 percent, most economists expected another rate cut was just around the corner. At the time, central bank watchers noted that the RBA has a tendency to make such cuts in pairs.

However, stronger-than-expected economic data got in the way of consecutive rate cuts. And now the RBA believes the falling Australian dollar is doing much of the heavy lifting that might otherwise be done by additional monetary stimulus. So that takes an August rate cut off the table.

As the recently published minutes from the RBA’s July 2 meeting put it, “Given the exchange rate adjustment that was occurring, and with the substantial degree of monetary stimulus already in place, members assessed the current stance of policy to be appropriate for the time being.” Prior to their publication, traders were giving a 64 percent probability of an August rate cut.

The aussie recently traded near USD0.92, down 13.2 percent from its 52-week high set back on Jan. 10. The currency had traded as low as USD0.905 in recent days, but the RBA’s willingness to stand pat on further rate cuts coupled with expectations of a more dovish stance from the US Federal Reserve gave the aussie a modest bump.

Although one of the goals of the RBA’s monetary policy has been to weaken the currency, its rate cuts appeared to have little effect. It wasn’t until the Fed disclosed that it was considering how to conclude its extraordinary stimulus that the aussie began to decline in earnest.

Meanwhile, the RBA still made an allowance for the possibility of additional easing, with the observation that the country’s economic growth remains below its long-term trend and that the bank has the scope for further easing, if necessary.

Most economists expect another rate cut before the end of the year. And at the very least, it’s important for the bank to maintain its easing bias to ensure the currency continues to weaken.

The relatively strong aussie had been a major headwind for the country’s exports. Indeed, the central bank already sees evidence that the falling currency has helped stabilize the resource sector, while possibly providing support for non-resource exports as well. The overall volume of commodity exports has grown, but that was partially offset by the decline in commodity prices on the global markets.

Although the RBA believes the resource sector remains near its peak, the planning and development necessary for future projects has declined precipitously over the past year.

Unfortunately, the non-resource industries have yet to demonstrate that they’re ready to lead the economy. The bank’s near-term outlook for these sectors remains subdued.

The RBA is also paying close attention to China, which is Australia’s largest trading partner. Although China’s GDP grew 7.5 percent during the second quarter, meeting investors’ expectations, some worry that full-year growth could miss the country’s official growth target of 7.5 percent.

Last week, China’s Finance Minister Lou Jiwei seemed to signal the country was comfortable with a rate of growth a full point lower than what had previously been targeted. But his comments were later downplayed and restated.

And now a number of economists believe that China’s central bank could be set for a rate cut of its own in order to bolster its slowing economy. The Middle Kingdom’s policymakers are intent upon implementing structural reforms that will provide for more stable long-term growth, and a rate cut could buy them time to begin making these reforms.

The Roundup

Here’s when AE Portfolio Holdings will report their next sets of financial and operating numbers. Some have “confirmed” dates, while for others we’ve provided an “estimate.”

For most, this will cover the full fiscal year ending June 30, 2013. We’ve noted for others that report on a different schedule the period to which the announcement pertains.

Conservative Holdings

  • Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund (NYSE: FAX)–N/A (fund, reports holdings on a quarterly basis)
  • AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGK, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (estimate)
  • APA Group (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF)–Aug. 21, 2013
  • Australand Property Group Ltd (ASX: ALZ, OTC: AUAOF)–July 24, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
  • Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ, OTC: ANEWF, ADR: ANZBY)–April 30, 2013 (FY 2013 H1, confirmed)
  • Cardno Ltd (ASX: CDD, OTC: COLDF)–Aug. 13, 2013 (estimate)
  • CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL, OTC: CMXHF, ADR: CMXHY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (estimate)
  • Envestra Ltd (ASX: ENV, OTC: EVSRF)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
  • GPT Group (ASX: GPT, OTC: GPTGF)–Aug. 12, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
  • M2 Telecommunications Group Ltd (ASX: MTU, OTC: MTCZF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (estimate)
  • Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC, OTC: RMSUF)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
  • SMS Management & Technology Ltd (ASX: SMX, OTC: SMSUF)–Aug. 14, 2013 (estimate)
  • Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY)–Aug. 8, 2013 (confirmed)
  • Transurban Group (ASX: TCL, OTC: TRAUF)–Aug. 6, 2013 (estimate)
  • Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES, OTC: WFAFF, ADR: WFAFY)–Aug. 15, 2013 (estimate)

Aggressive Holdings

  • Amalgamated Holdings Ltd (ASX: AHD, OTC: None)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
  • Ausdrill Ltd (ASX: ASL, OTC: AUSDF)–Aug. 28, 2013 (estimate)
  • BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP)–Aug. 21, 2013 (estimate)
  • GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC, OTC: GRCLF)–May 16, 2013 (FY 2013 H1, confirmed)
  • Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN, OTC: MALRF)–Aug. 15, 2013 (estimate)
  • Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM, OTC: NCMGF, ADR: NCMGY)–Aug. 12, 2013 (estimate)
  • Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH, OTC: OISHF, ADR: OISHY)–Aug. 12, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
  • Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG, OTC: OGFGF, ADR: OGFGY)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
  • Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO)–Aug. 8, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
  • Spark Infrastructure Group (ASX: SKI, OTC: SFDPF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
  • Woodside Petroleum Ltd (ASX: WPL, OTC: WOPEF, ADR: WOPEY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
  • WorleyParsons Ltd (ASX: WOR, OTC: WYGPF, ADR: WYGPY)–Aug. 28, 2013 (estimate)

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