Australia’s export economy got some good news last week: The trade balance widened dramatically in May, bringing the trade surplus to AUD670 million. This stronger-than-expected performance was the fourth consecutive month in which exports exceeded imports, after 13 months of fairly substantial deficits.

Exports rose AUD914 million, or 3.6 percent month over month, to AUD26.4 billion. By comparison, the April surplus originally came in at just AUD28 million, though it was subsequently revised higher to AUD171 million. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated a more moderate increase in the surplus for May, to just AUD53 million.

At the same time, imports rose by AUD414 million, or 1.6 percent from a month ago, to AUD25.8 billion.

This sudden momentum in export volumes can be partially attributed to the sharp decline in the Australian dollar, which fell below parity with the US dollar in early May for the first time in almost a year, and ended the month down 4.5 percent.

Lower commodities prices also drove higher volumes. Indeed, exports of metal ores, coal, fuel and gold boosted export earnings by 5 percent, or AUD767 million. This means resources accounted for 84 percent of May’s export gains.

That suggests the resource boom remains near its peak, which some analysts expect will be sustained for another nine to 12 months, even as softer imports indicate a slackening domestic economy. As to the latter point, imports of capital goods, such as the equipment and machinery businesses invest in during periods of growth, fell 5.4 percent, following April’s surge of 17 percent.

The Aussie’s relative strength compared to other currencies has been a major headwind for the economy, putting it at a competitive disadvantage in the global market. Indeed, one of the major goals of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy has been to weaken the Aussie.

But despite a number of rate cuts that brought the RBA’s cash rate target to 2.75 percent in May, a 50-year low, the Aussie’s decline didn’t begin in earnest until the US Federal Reserve implied that an end to its extraordinary easing could happen as early as this fall.

From the standpoint of currency traders, the Fed’s more hawkish stance provided a favorable contrast to the RBA’s easing bias. The Aussie has since fallen to USD0.91, and analysts have been racing to lower their estimates for where it could end up a year hence.

Indeed, last week Credit Suisse beat its institutional peers to the downside, recently revising its 12-month forecast for the Aussie to USD0.75. The bank believes that a steep currency slide is part of the Australian economy’s normalization process, as strength derived from its resource sector shifts to other areas of the economy. However, it remains to be seen which sector is ready to pick up the slack.

But even at USD0.75, Credit Suisse believes the Aussie would still be 10 percent above its long-term average real effective exchange rate of USD0.68. Though this seemingly harsh assessment makes for interesting fodder, it should be noted that the bank’s forecast is currently an outlier among its peers. According to Bloomberg’s survey of 54 institutional economists, the average 12-month forecast for the Aussie is USD0.91.

A weakening currency may be a disappointing development for overseas investors who’ve enjoyed having their returns enhanced by a strong currency, but it’s a necessary prerequisite for an economic rebound and, therefore, continued gains in our stocks.

And this week, China reported its June trade results, which fell seriously short of expectations. Exports dropped 3.1 percent year over year versus forecasts of 4 percent growth, while imports declined 0.7 percent, compared to forecasts for an 8 percent rise.

As Australia’s largest trading partner, a protracted slowdown in China poses a major risk to the Australian economy. Nevertheless, analysts noted that imports from Australia, such as iron ore, were up 12 percent year over year.

While the Aussie is down 13.4 percent from its 52-week high against the US dollar, it’s dropped 16.4 percent from its high against the Chinese renminbi. China’s June trade figures offer further evidence that a weakening currency could be the key to restoring Australia’s growth.

The Roundup

Here’s when AE Portfolio Holdings will report their next sets of financial and operating numbers. Some have “confirmed” dates, while for others we’ve provided an “estimate.”

For most, this will cover the full fiscal year ending June 30, 2013. We’ve noted for others that report on a different schedule the period to which the announcement pertains.

Conservative Holdings

• Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund (NYSE: FAX)–N/A (fund, reports holdings on a quarterly basis)
• AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGK, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (estimate)
• APA Group (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF)–Aug. 21, 2013
• Australand Property Group Ltd (ASX: ALZ, OTC: AUAOF)–July 24, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
• Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ, OTC: ANEWF, ADR: ANZBY)–April 30, 2013 (FY 2013 H1, confirmed)
• Cardno Ltd (ASX: CDD, OTC: COLDF)–Aug. 13, 2013 (estimate)
• CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL, OTC: CMXHF, ADR: CMXHY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (estimate)
• Envestra Ltd (ASX: ENV, OTC: EVSRF)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
• GPT Group (ASX: GPT, OTC: GPTGF)–Aug. 12, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
• M2 Telecommunications Group Ltd (ASX: MTU, OTC: MTCZF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (estimate)
• Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC, OTC: RMSUF)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
• SMS Management & Technology Ltd (ASX: SMX, OTC: SMSUF)–Aug. 14, 2013 (estimate)
• Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY)–Aug. 8, 2013 (confirmed)
• Transurban Group (ASX: TCL, OTC: TRAUF)–Aug. 6, 2013 (estimate)
• Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES, OTC: WFAFF, ADR: WFAFY)–Aug. 15, 2013 (estimate)

Aggressive Holdings

• Amalgamated Holdings Ltd (ASX: AHD, OTC: None)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
• Ausdrill Ltd (ASX: ASL, OTC: AUSDF)–Aug. 28, 2013 (estimate)
• BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP)–Aug. 21, 2013 (estimate)
• GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC, OTC: GRCLF)–May 16, 2013 (FY 2013 H1, confirmed)
• Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN, OTC: MALRF)–Aug. 15, 2013 (estimate)
• Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM, OTC: NCMGF, ADR: NCMGY)–Aug. 12, 2013 (estimate)
• Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH, OTC: OISHF, ADR: OISHY)–Aug. 12, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
• Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG, OTC: OGFGF, ADR: OGFGY)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
• Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO)–Aug. 8, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
• Spark Infrastructure Group (ASX: SKI, OTC: SFDPF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
• Woodside Petroleum Ltd (ASX: WPL, OTC: WOPEF, ADR: WOPEY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
• WorleyParsons Ltd (ASX: WOR, OTC: WYGPF, ADR: WYGPY)–Aug. 28, 2013 (estimate)