Skeptics Rip into Canada’s Stellar Jobs Report

Last Friday, Statistics Canada (StatCan) reported absolutely staggering May employment numbers in its monthly Labor Force Survey. The economy added 95,000 jobs last month, a majority of which were full-time, for the single largest month of employment growth in more than a decade.

Based on relative population size, that would be the equivalent of adding about 950,000 jobs to the US economy. As such, it’s not unreasonable to be skeptical of such gains amid an otherwise weakening economy.

And now some economists have offered pointed critiques of these numbers, as well as the methodology StatCan employs to produce them. But before we proceed with their analysis, let’s briefly run though the highlights from the survey.

The overall employment figure blew past economists’ consensus forecast of 15,000 jobs, as well as the month-ago figure of 12,500 jobs. Full-time jobs rose by 76,700 versus 36,000 the prior month, while part-time jobs were up 18,200 in contrast to a loss of 23,600 such jobs last month.

That helped Canada’s unemployment rate continue its long-term downward trend, with a decline of 0.1 percentage points in May, to 7.1 percent.

The only reason the employment rate didn’t decrease further is because more Canadians were looking for work last month. This caused an increase in the labor force participation rate, which increased by 0.2 percentage points, to 66.7 percent.

The construction sector was the primary driver of jobs growth, with 43,000 new jobs, after two months of essentially flat numbers. This number is the logical consequence of the 10.5 percent increase in building permits during April, to CAD7 billion. Construction intentions for multi-family housing led the way that month, rising 21 percent, to CAD4.4 billion.

Now that we’ve digested some of the details, let’s learn what the critics have to say.

The first quibble is with StatCan’s methodology. The survey of 55,000 households is considered a relatively small sample size, and is therefore fairly volatile from month to month. In addition to the sample size, doubts have also been cast on the agency’s approach to sampling.

And statistical adjustments earlier in the year, that reflected sharp job losses after last year’s gains, may have made a sudden, huge gain such as this one inevitable. As the Wall Street Journal noted, economists at National Bank Financial were quickly to dismiss the report:

“Canada’s jobs market isn’t booming the way the [Labor Force Survey] is suggesting, and the stellar jobs report should be interpreted with caution,” they said in a report. They said sharp job losses earlier in the year “likely reflected an outsized statistical adjustment after suspiciously strong gains last year.”

“So it was a matter of time that we had an upward correction,” they concluded.

BMO Capital Markets also warned against accepting the report at face value: “The volatility in Canada’s employment reports puts a massive warning label on this release.”

So if the month-to-month volatility of the report undermines its utility, then what should armchair economists be scrutinizing instead? The answer is the longer-term trend. And the picture from that vantage point is less reassuring.

Even when taking the latest data into account, BMO says the three-month trend shows below-average job creation, and thus characterized the latest report as “Shiny, sparkly headline, dull, dreary trend.” Most economists focus on the six-month average, and that shows average employment growth of 19,000 jobs per month.

Beyond that, the jobs themselves aren’t exactly high quality, which is similar to the situation in the US. Economists at CIBC World Markets say that although their measure of job quality has been stable in recent years, it’s still 7 percent below the levels seen during the early part of the last decade. That means the Canadian economy must create more jobs to generate overall income growth that’s in line with the long-term trend.

CIBC’s employment quality metric is derived from comparing part-time employment to full-time employment, paid employment to self-employment, and the relative level of compensation among full-time, paid-employment jobs.

At present, part-time workers and the self-employed account for about 30 percent of total employment. In particular, CIBC cites a shortage in supply of high-paying jobs, while wage growth in this demographic has far outpaced that of lower-paying jobs.

At the same time, employment has grown faster in lower-paying industries. Since 1988, for example, CIBC’s data show that the number of high-income, full-time jobs has grown just 5 percent, while the number of lower-paying jobs has jumped 40 percent.

Although the Canadian economy has recovered all the jobs lost during the Great Recession, the unemployment rate is still higher than it was prior to that. But even if Canada’s latest employment figures turn out to be anomalous, the country’s overall employment situation is likely still the envy of US policymakers.

The Roundup

Here’s where to find our analyses for Portfolio Holdings that have reported earnings for the first quarter of 2013:

Conservative Holdings

  • AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–May Portfolio Update
  • Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–June “In Focus”
  • Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–June 4 Maple Leaf Memo
  • Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF)–May 7 Maple Leaf Memo
  • Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF)–June “Best Buys”
  • Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR, OTC: CDPYF)–June “In Focus”
  • Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–May 9 (confirmed)
  • Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–May 7 (confirmed)
  • Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–June “In Focus”
  • EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–May 14 (confirmed)
  • Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–May 14 (confirmed)
  • Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–May 7 (confirmed)
  • Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR, OTC: NPRUF)–June “In Focus”
  • Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA)–May 9 (confirmed)
  • RioCan REIT (TSX: REI, OTC: RIOCF)–May 7 Maple Leaf Memo
  • Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/A, NYSE: SJR)–May Portfolio Update
  • Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB)–May 10 (confirmed)
  • TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–May Portfolio Update

Aggressive Holdings

  • Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN OTC: ACAZF)–May 9 (confirmed)
  • Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–May 15 (confirmed)
  • ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–May Portfolio Update
  • Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–May 14 Maple Leaf Memo
  • Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–May 15 (confirmed)
  • Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–June Portfolio Update
  • Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–June “Best Buys”
  • Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF)–May 10 (confirmed)
  • Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF)–June Portfolio Update
  • IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–May 17 Flash Alert
  • Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE)–June Portfolio Update
  • Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–May 7 Maple Leaf Memo
  • Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–May 15 (confirmed)
  • Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–May 7 (confirmed)
  • PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–May Portfolio Update
  • Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–May 8 (confirmed)
  • Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–May Portfolio Update
  • Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF)–June Portfolio Update

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