Bearish Sentiment Intensifies Against the Aussie

There are few forces more inevitable than the pile-on effect of shifting sentiment. That’s certainly the case with the Australian dollar, the former darling of investors troubled by the deleterious effects of central bank easing in much of the developed world.

The Aussie’s selloff since mid-April was hastened in recent weeks by speculation that the US Federal Reserve could curtail some of its extraordinary stimulus. In response, traders pushed the US dollar higher, exacerbating the Aussie’s woes.

And now investment banks and other research houses are predictably rushing to outdo one another with increasingly pessimistic forecasts for where the Aussie will ultimately bottom out. Analysts at the Australian brokerage Bell Potter set a year-end price target of USD0.92, with a subsequent low somewhere above USD0.80.

Similarly, Goldman Sachs recently forecast that the Aussie would drop to USD0.90 by the end of the year. Beyond that, the investment bank’s model predicts a further fall to USD0.74 by 2016. Goldman has declared shorting the Aussie as one of its top trades of 2013.

By comparison, the consensus forecast among the 50 institutions whose data is aggregated by Bloomberg is for the Aussie to trade around USD0.98 during the fourth quarter. The currency is expected to weaken to an average of USD0.97 in 2014, falling incrementally lower each year until it hits USD0.85 in 2017.

Such news is certainly disheartening to US investors who have reaped the twin benefits of investing in the country’s resource boom while its currency was appreciating. But the strong Aussie has posed a major headwind to the country’s economy, and now that mining investment is peaking, a weaker currency will be absolutely necessary to bolster the underlying businesses of our stocks.

While Australian economic growth is certainly slowing, it’s too soon to tell whether the Aussie dollar bears will prove right about two other factors key to their bet: a US economic recovery and a slowdown in China.

The nascent recovery in the US is having difficulty moving past the embryonic stage. And in the absence of strengthening economic data, the Fed could stand pat on rates, even if it decides to reduce its footprint in the mortgage-backed securities market. But even the latter seems more unlikely than likely for now.

Meanwhile, it’s difficult to gauge the extent of China’s slowdown, as data transparency is hardly an autocracy’s strong suit.

But even if neither prediction comes to pass, the Aussie will likely remain in a lower trading range until commodities prices rebound.

In the meantime, traders have quickly accomplished what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had sought to do with its seven rounds of rate cuts since late 2011. During that time, the RBA has cut its cash rate by a total of 2 percentage points, to 2.75 percent.

Following its latest meeting on Tuesday, the central bank opted to leave the rate unchanged. But even though the Aussie has dropped by roughly 9.5 percent since early April, to USD0.9542, the RBA believes that the exchange rate is still high in light of the decline in export prices over the past year and a half.

In other words, the RBA likely welcomes all the negative sentiment surrounding the currency. Unfortunately, its efforts to kickstart the non-mining sectors of the economy have yet to show results. And many economists believe that the Aussie will have to fall below USD0.90 before these areas of the economy can start driving growth in lieu of resources.

The Roundup

Here’s when AE Portfolio Holdings will report their next sets of financial and operating numbers. Some have “confirmed” dates, while for others we’ve provided an “estimate.”

For most, this will cover the full fiscal year ending June 30, 2013. We’ve noted for others that report on a different schedule the period to which the announcement pertains.

Conservative Holdings

  • Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund (NYSE: FAX)–N/A (fund, reports holdings on a quarterly basis)
  • AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGK, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (estimate)
  • APA Group (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF)–Aug. 21, 2013
  • Australand Property Group Ltd (ASX: ALZ, OTC: AUAOF)–July 24, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
  • Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ, OTC: ANEWF, ADR: ANZBY)–April 30, 2013 (FY 2013 H1, confirmed)
  • Cardno Ltd (ASX: CDD, OTC: COLDF)–Aug. 13, 2013 (estimate)
  • CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL, OTC: CMXHF, ADR: CMXHY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (estimate)
  • Envestra Ltd (ASX: ENV, OTC: EVSRF)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
  • GPT Group (ASX: GPT, OTC: GPTGF)–Aug. 12, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
  • M2 Telecommunications Group Ltd (ASX: MTU, OTC: MTCZF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (estimate)
  • Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC, OTC: RMSUF)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
  • SMS Management & Technology Ltd (ASX: SMX, OTC: SMSUF)–Aug. 14, 2013 (estimate)
  • Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY)–Aug. 8, 2013 (confirmed)
  • Transurban Group (ASX: TCL, OTC: TRAUF)–Aug. 6, 2013 (estimate)
  • Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES, OTC: WFAFF, ADR: WFAFY)–Aug. 15, 2013 (estimate)

Aggressive Holdings

  • Amalgamated Holdings Ltd (ASX: AHD, OTC: None)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
  • Ausdrill Ltd (ASX: ASL, OTC: AUSDF)–Aug. 28, 2013 (estimate)
  • BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP)–Aug. 21, 2013 (estimate)
  • GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC, OTC: GRCLF)–May 16, 2013 (FY 2013 H1, confirmed)
  • Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN, OTC: MALRF)–Aug. 15, 2013 (estimate)
  • Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM, OTC: NCMGF, ADR: NCMGY)–Aug. 12, 2013 (estimate)
  • Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH, OTC: OISHF, ADR: OISHY)–Aug. 12, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
  • Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG, OTC: OGFGF, ADR: OGFGY)–Aug. 22, 2013 (estimate)
  • Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO)–Aug. 8, 2013 (2013 H1, confirmed)
  • Spark Infrastructure Group (ASX: SKI, OTC: SFDPF)–Aug. 26, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
  • Woodside Petroleum Ltd (ASX: WPL, OTC: WOPEF, ADR: WOPEY)–Aug. 21, 2013 (2013 H1, estimate)
  • WorleyParsons Ltd (ASX: WOR, OTC: WYGPF, ADR: WYGPY)–Aug. 28, 2013 (estimate)

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