On the other you have the Toronto Globe and Mail headlining its online piece about the same issue Bank of Canada Softens Rate Stand, Flags Debt Concerns.

So did the BoC “strengthen” or “soften” its position on interest rates? Let’s go to the concluding paragraph of the statement Governor Mark Carney released this morning:

Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. Over time, some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target.  The timing and degree of any such withdrawal will be weighed carefully against global and domestic developments, including the evolution of imbalances in the household sector.

And here’s the concluding paragraph of Mr. Carney’s statement from Sept. 5, 2012, the last time the BoC issued an interest rate decision:

Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. To the extent that the economic expansion continues and the current excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term. The timing and degree of any such withdrawal will be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments.

The only differences appear in the second sentence and at the conclusion of the final sentence.

The October statement’s second sentence begins with the qualifying phrase, “Over time….” The September statement’s second sentence begins with, “To the extent that the economic expansion continues and the current excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed…”

Both conclude, “…some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.”

The September phrasing is more definite about identifying “economic expansion” as the key to triggering the BoC’s first interest rate hike since September 2010. The October statement merely suggests that “over time” the central bank may need to tighten.

All that this subtle difference between the preambles accomplishes is coloring some more gray into a practice–economic forecasting–that is inherently shady.

Meanwhile, in October Mr. Carney appended the phrase “including the evolution of imbalances in the household sector” to the end of what had been a similar concluding sentence in September to once again emphasize, though for the first time in an official policy statement, that Canadians’ household debt levels are a growing concern. This suggests Mr. Carney may move to tighten credit.

The key to understanding the Ottawa-based central bank’s bias as of this moment remains the preservation of the phrase “some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate.”

Mr. Carney and company are still of the mind that the BoC’s next move will be to tighten interest rates. For now, as it’s been for 18 meetings now, the longest stretch without a move, up or down, since the 1950s, is 1 percent. That’s still historically low, reflecting the observation that global factors continue to restrain growth in Canada. At the same time, however, “a modest expansion” is still in process, supported by domestic factors.

“The persistent strength of the Canadian dollar,” a result of “safe haven flows” and the relatively loose monetary policy moves made by other central banks around the world, is likely to continue. And this, the BoC acknowledges, will rein in Canadian exports, which it forecasts will pick up “gradually” but will remain below the pre-Great Recession peak until 2014. The strong loonie presents “competitiveness challenges” that are complemented in this context by “weak foreign demand.”

As for those external factors impacting the Canadian economy, growth in the US, Canada’s most important trading partner, is still “gradual,” as it was observed to be in September. Europe is “in recession” and signs point to further contraction, though language describing its “acute crisis” has been removed. The word on China and other emerging economies is that growth “has slowed somewhat more than expected,” but the BoC now sees “signs of stabilization around current growth rates.”

Prices for oil and other Canadian-produced commodities, however, continue to rise, while global financial conditions are improving because of “aggressive policy actions of major central banks.” The BoC qualified this positive view in its October statement with the admonition “sentiment remains fragile.”

However, based on recent revisions to economic data, the central bank did boost its forecast for economic growth this year to 2.2 percent from an estimate of 2.1 percent published in its July Monetary Policy Report. Canadian gross domestic product will grow by 2.3 percent in 2013, a prediction consistent with July’s, and 2.4 percent in 2014, down from a 2.5 percent target.

The BoC will offer a more in-depth look at its growth forecast with is October Monetary Policy Report, scheduled for release tomorrow, Oct. 24.

The Canadian dollar spiked on the BoC’s rate announcement, moving from USD1.0024 to as high as USD1.01 within minutes of its release. The loonie has settled down from that level, probably as a function of today’s broad and deep “risk-off” mood. The S&P/Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index is down 1.51 percent as of this writing, the S&P 500 Index 1.31 percent. European bourses closed uniformly lower.

Earnings reports so far have been underwhelming, reigniting fears of a global slowdown. Although factors such as the US Federal Reserve’s time-unlimited third round of quantitative easing haven’t done anything to boost corporate profits, they have provided clear definition for what the Bank of Canada rightly describes as “safe haven” flows.

As of today’s statement, as was the case after September’s, Canada and the loonie remain solid alternatives for US-based investors seeking protection from the long-term depreciation of the buck.

Here’s when Canadian Edge Portfolio Holdings are scheduled to post numbers during the current reporting period. As detailed in a Flash Alert published earlier today, Oct. 23, Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF) is the first to report. Numbers were solid.

• AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–Nov. 1 (confirmed)
• Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–Nov. 7 (confirmed)
• Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–Nov. 5 (confirmed)
• Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–Nov. 9 (estimate)
• Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF)–Oct. 30 (confirmed)
• Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF)–Nov. 8 (confirmed)
• Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR, OTC: CDPYF)–Nov. 8 (confirmed)
• Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–Nov. 8 (confirmed)
• Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–Nov. 6 (confirmed)
• Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–Nov. 5 (confirmed)
• EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–Nov. 5 (confirmed)
• IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–November 9 (confirmed)
• Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–Nov. 6 (confirmed)
• Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE)–Nov. 8 (estimate)
• Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–Nov. 1 (estimate)
• Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR, OTC: NPRUF)–Nov. 7 (confirmed)
• Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA)–Nov. 6 (confirmed)
• RioCan REIT (TSX: REI, OTC: RIOCF)–Nov. 6 (confirmed)
• Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/A. NYSE: SJR)–Oct. 25 (confirmed)
• Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB)–Nov. 9 (estimate)
• TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–Oct. 24 (confirmed)

Aggressive Holdings

• Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN OTC: ACAZF)–Oct. 30 (confirmed)
• Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–Nov. 14 (estimate)
• ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–Nov. 2 (estimate)
• Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–Nov. 9 (estimate)
• Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–Oct. 23 Flash Alert
• Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–Nov. 9 (estimate)
• Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF)–Nov. 7 (confirmed)
• Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–Nov. 1 (estimate)
• Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–Nov. 8 (estimate)
• Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–Nov. 2 (estimate)
• Pengrowth Energy Corp (TSX: PGF, NYSE: PGH)–Oct. 31 (confirmed)
• PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–Nov. 8 (confirmed)
• Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–Nov. 9 (estimate)
• Poseidon Concepts Corp (TSX: PSN, OTC: POOSF)–Nov. 8 (estimate)
• Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–Nov. 1 (confirmed)
• Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF)–Nov. 2 (estimate)