Roger Conrad

Analyst Articles

The race is on. At stake: USD21.7 trillion to be spent on new infrastructure in the developing world over the next decade, and trillions more in the US, Japan and Western Europe. The needs are myriad. In the developed world, roads and bridges are crumbling. Water supplies are deteriorating. The past century’s communications networks and power systems are increasingly overloaded and prone to outages, at the same time constant connectivity is becoming ever more essential to 21st century commerce. Read More

The Chinese character for crisis is itself a combination of two other Chinese characters: danger and opportunity. That’s food for thought as we live through the ongoing trials and tribulations of the US financial system and their exaggerated impact on vital resource stocks. Read More

It’s two Paulson Plans and several less grandiose patches later and we’re still trying to contain the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. The historic decline in real estate values--the destruction of the “forever up” property value dream--is the widely acknowledged source of today’s problems, but right now the focus, properly, is on arresting the contagion before we start talking depression rather than mere recession. Read More

Total US electricity demand will rise at least 20 percent by 2030, according to the Dept of Energy. Assuming US growth approximates historical averages, that percentage rises to 30 percent, and under a more robust forecast it kicks up to 40 percent. According to a study commissioned by the Edison Electric Institute, that adds up to USD1.5 trillion in needed new investment for generation and basic transmission and distribution infrastructure. And it actually excludes the cost of what now seems inevitable: carbon dioxide (CO2) regulation. Read More

Total US electricity demand will rise at least 20 percent by 2030, according to the Dept of Energy. Assuming US growth approximates historical averages, that percentage rises to 30 percent, and under a more robust forecast it kicks up to 40 percent. According to a study commissioned by the Edison Electric Institute, that adds up to USD1.5 trillion in needed new investment for generation and basic transmission and distribution infrastructure. And it actually excludes the cost of what now seems inevitable: carbon dioxide (CO2) regulation. Read More

The world’s stock markets aren’t for the faint of heart here in September 2008. Neither is the market for fixed income excepting US Treasuries, the classic safe haven. The flipside of panicked crisis markets, however, is opportunity. It takes fortitude, patience, spare cash and a willingness to bet against the crowd. And it goes without saying that you’ve got to pick targets carefully. Read More

The world’s stock markets aren’t for the faint of heart here in September 2008. Neither is the market for fixed income excepting US Treasuries, the classic safe haven. The flipside of panicked crisis markets, however, is opportunity. It takes fortitude, patience, spare cash and a willingness to bet against the crowd. And it goes without saying that you’ve got to pick targets carefully. Read More

The US Treasury’s historic bailouts of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and American International Group have rocked the world over the past few weeks. And with other regional banks and investment houses teetering, there’s almost surely more turmoil to come. Read More

Opening down some 300 Dow points, the stock market tried valiantly to rally for most of Monday before succumbing to an end-of-the-day rout. That the market was headed lower was no great surprise to anyone who followed the tumultuous events of this past weekend. And for anyone who was watching football instead, there was yesterday’s headline in The Wall Street Journal: “Crisis on Wall Street as Lehman Totters, Merrill Is Sold, AIG Seeks to Raise Cash.” Read More