Roger Conrad

Analyst Articles

Canada has been in budget surplus for 10 years; fiscal balance is now an ethos among the political leadership, and voters have grown to expect it. And prudent budget management means the country is in better shape than most to take on additional and significant fiscal spending measures to stimulate its domestic economy. Read More

We’re not out of the woods yet in this market. Stocks of all sectors are washed out, and values abound. But more wild swings are almost certain, as are further dramatic selloffs for stocks--possibly even new lows. The time has rarely been better, however, for finding compelling bargains. You’ve got to be ready for the ups and downs, but the positions you lock in now on great companies will pay off for years to come. Read More

We’re not out of the woods yet in this market. Stocks of all sectors are washed out, and values abound. But more wild swings are almost certain, as are further dramatic selloffs for stocks--possibly even new lows. The time has rarely been better, however, for finding compelling bargains. You’ve got to be ready for the ups and downs, but the positions you lock in now on great companies will pay off for years to come. Read More

Will Santa Claus visit Canada this year? To be sure, the second half of 2008 has thus far been pretty much a lump of coal for investors, just as it’s been in virtually every other market on the planet. But there are some reasons to hope for a better December. Read More

Tight credit markets and weakening global growth sent energy prices and the Canadian dollar plummeting in the second half of 2008. That took a big bite out of Canadian trusts. And even those that continued to post strong growth in cash flows and distributions weren’t spared. My bet for 2009 is we'll see many of those negative factors reverse. Read More

The possibility of further distribution cuts is well priced in for almost every energy and resource trust. There is a group of trusts, however, that’s almost equally beaten down but has far more revenue security--and therefore doesn’t face the risk of distribution cuts if the recession lasts longer than expected: Strong business trusts. Read More

For all his cunning, Mr. Harper proved himself doubly cold, though perhaps a little dumb, with the official fall economic and fiscal update delivered by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on behalf of the minority government last Thursday. It was widely hinted that Mr. Flaherty would put off any stimulus plans until the February 2009 federal budget period, and there was no upside surprise there. Read More

Providing government support to aggregate demand is of obvious critical importance right now, but efforts to do so by spending money building schools, railways, hospitals, low-income housing, bridges and water mains has the added benefit of redressing decades of neglect by governments with other spending priorities. Read More

One reason energy trusts haven’t been cutting more prolifically is management teams’ systematic use of hedging to lock in prices over the summer. This held back returns in the first half of the year but is proving to be a major plus in the second half. And many trusts are using the money to reduce debt further, which improves both long-term sustainability and their ability to weather the current very difficult environment. Read More