Roger Conrad

Analyst Articles

Efforts by Mr. Harper, Mr. Flaherty and other Conservative politicians were as much about public relations in the aftermath of last fall’s economic update; business leaders as well as ordinary Canadians were disappointed with the minority government’s response to what was then a looming crisis. Significant job losses and a corresponding deterioration in consumer confidence means small government/fiscal discipline must give way to political reality. Read More

The best news thus far in this, the season of preannouncements, is how our holdings outside the oil and gas production business have been maintaining and even increasing distributions over the past several months. That’s even as the global credit/economic crisis has intensified and their share prices have been subjected to unprecedented volatility. Read More

The specifics of Mr. Harper’s and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s budget proposal are not inconsequential, but the most important factor in a recovery for Canada, as well as the world, is the US response. Read More

Quality eventually wins out, and there’s no better place to shop for it than among cheap stocks of companies that are best positioned to take advantage of the world’s transition to the kind of new processes and new technologies that will reshape the world of the 21st century. Read More

Quality eventually wins out, and there’s no better place to shop for it than among cheap stocks of companies that are best positioned to take advantage of the world’s transition to the kind of new processes and new technologies that will reshape the world of the 21st century. Read More

It’s critically important to appreciate the fact that basic measures of credit conditions were at critical levels even before Lehman Brothers’ implosion. The first spike occurred in the summer of 2007, and the TED Spread moved in a wide, volatile range until it exploded after Sept. 15, 2008. Read More

When fear rules the market, it really doesn’t matter what you own. Neither high yields nor strong underlying businesses will stem the tide of investor selling. Read More

Canada’s economy will contract in the first half and rebound strongly in the second for an overall growth rate of nil: That’s the current consensus projection for the country in 2009. Read More

Oil prices hit a low near USD33 a barrel last month, before rallying to close out 2008 around USD40. That capped an extraordinary year in which black gold surged from USD90 to nearly USD150 in the first half and then tumbled 70 percent-plus in the second. Read More

Pick any measure you like: The nearly 40 percent loss in the S&P 500, and greater losses in developing world markets; the junk bond meltdown; the crackup in commodity prices; the halving of oil prices; the implosion of the global financial system; or any one of a few dozen other once-unthinkable major disasters. Last year was easily the worst for the investment markets since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Read More