10/17/12: Little Promise in European Gas

While natural gas has always been considered the “widow maker” of the commodity market thanks to its high volatility, there hasn’t been much movement so far this year. While the commodity has commanded higher prices in Europe than in the US, the global natural gas market can be characterized as nothing but down.

As growth in China slows and recession continues to spread in Europe, slack demand for natural gas and most other energy commodities hasn’t been sufficient to support prices.

That’s been a huge blow for Gazprom (OTC: OGZPY), which controls about 60 percent of Russian gas reserves and 17 percent of the global total. This energy behemoth also controls about a quarter of all European natural gas reserves. Based on production volume, Gazprom is the largest natural gas producer in the world. Following its 2005 purchase of a 75 percent stake in Sibneft, it is also a major producer of crude oil as well…

Absent a strategic deal to sell natural gas into China or a marked improvement in the European demand environment, I just can’t envision a scenario where there’s much upside potential here in the next year or so.

Sell Gazprom.

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