7/20/12: Way Down Down Under

CSR Ltd (ASX: CSR, OTC: CSRLF) is down about 90 percent from its all-time high on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), AUD12.47 in early 2006, and about 80 percent from the post-Great Financial Crisis high of AUD6 it hit on Aug. 28, 2009.

The stock closed at AUD1.17 per share on Jul. 17, 2012, in Sydney, an all-time low. And that’s saying something for a company that’s been listed on the ASX since 1962.

The company’s stock has been on a thrilling ride in the 21st century, topping out at AUD12.47 per share on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) on Mar. 31, 2006, as booming global demand for natural resources drove rapid domestic commercial and residential construction.

Like equities all over the world, however, 2008-09 was tough for CSR, as it hit an interim bottom of AUD2.85 on the ASX on Mar. 6, 2009, before beginning what looks like it could be a death dive to the final low of AUD1.17. As of this writing, during Jul. 19 trading Down Under in Sydney, CSR has ticked up from that price, at AUD1.22.

CSR more than doubled off its March 2009 low to a post-Great Financial Crisis high of AUD6 per share on Aug. 28, 2009. From there it’s been pretty much all downhill, as a sluggish global outlook and a stagnating domestic construction industry have taken a toll.

The company’s AUD1.2 billion acquisition of glassmaker Viridian in 2007 hasn’t worked out as hoped, coming as it did in the midst of a down turning market. A strong Australian dollar hasn’t helped, but management has initiated a program to cut what are high fixed costs at the unit.

CSR had already written down about AUD650 million of the book value of Viridian. The market was also uncomfortable with CSR’s sale of a 156-year old sugar business.

The stock’s steepening slide in 2012 is all about global prices for aluminum, with which it’s been closely correlated for the last six months. Aluminum has sold off from a near-term peak of USD2,650 per metric ton on Jul. 26, 2011, to a low of USD1,845 on Jun. 26, 2012. It closed at USD1,944 on Jul. 19.

With an annual dividend of AUD0.13 for fiscal 2012 and at a price of AUD1.185 per share as of this writing the 12-month net yield on the stock is 10.97 percent. That’s a big yield, and that’s what we’re hunting here.

But we’re not looking to throw money away. In addition to persistent rumors of potential interest from private equity players, which date at least a year back, to when the company was trading above AUD2.60 per share, CSR’s continuing business operations and strong balance sheet suggest there’s still long-term value here. Buy under USD1.35.

For more on CSR, see this month’s issue of Big Yield Hunting.

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