11/10/11: 10 for Top-Notch Total Returns

Third-quarter earnings reporting season has shifted into overdrive the past couple days. Below I review results for the following ten Canadian Edge Portfolio holdings:

  • Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (TSX: BRC-U, OTC: BRPFF)
  • Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)
  • Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)
  • Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)
  • Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF)
  • Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)
  • Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, OTC: PBNPF)
  • Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)
  • Provident Energy Ltd (TSX: PVE, NYSE: PVX)
  • Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB)

As you’ll read below, some reported results were more bullish than others. Some, such as Student Transportation Inc’s (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB) reflected usual seasonal weakness–most children aren’t in school in summer–and were actually quite strong on close examination.

Numbers at some companies, such as Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (TSX: BRC-U, OTC: BRPFF), were overshadowed by major transforming events such as that company’s pending merger with parent Brookfield Asset Management’s (TSX: BAM/A, NYSE: BAM) renewable energy portfolio. Results from Enerplus were slightly worse than expected due to weather-related impacts on output that have since been reversed.

What’s clear about all 10 companies’ results, however, is cash flows cover distributions by very safe margins. That means dividends are not only safe but are likely to be increased going forward.

Management teams have also been relentlessly reducing and refinancing debt to extend maturities and cut interest costs. That leaves absolutely no chance of the kind of credit squeeze that buried Yellow Media Inc (TSX: YLO, OTC: YLWPF) earlier this year, no matter what happens in the stock and credit markets.

Most important of all, each of these companies continued to execute capital spending plans to boost long-term growth. Despite management’s general caution on the macro environment going into 2012, most of them have actually announced increases in capital spending from projections made earlier this year. That includes the three energy producers, who must constantly assess plans in light of changes in energy prices.

Continued investment in growth is the key to rising cash flow for all of these companies going forward, as well as rising dividends and share prices. The fact they were able to do it and boost balance sheet strength in the third quarter–as they have all year–is the main reason I’m still bullish on all 10, in addition to their super yields.

My one caution is that new buyers should not pay more than the buy-up-to targets I’ve set for these stocks. The tendency of many investors is to pay any price for a favorite. But no stock, no matter how stellar the underlying company, is a “buy” at any price.

If a stock you favor is trading above my buy target, the best idea is just to wait for the price to drop. It may take a while. But as we’ve seen time and again over the past year, stocks do drop across the board on days when investor gloom rises, and the big money retreats to the investment of last resort: US Treasury bonds.

In other words, you may not have long to wait at all.

As I wrote in the November Portfolio Update, my view is CE Portfolio stocks are headed higher as we move into the closing weeks of the year. In fact, given the gains we’re seeing in the wake of some of these earnings announcements we could very well wind up with a “hat trick” of three consecutive years of double-digit gains. And that’s in spite of getting caught in the meltdowns of Yellow Media and Perpetual Energy Inc (TSX: PMT, OTC: PMGYF).

Unfortunately, there are also plenty of catalysts for a quite vicious selloff in the next several weeks, with Italy’s sovereign debt woes currently topping the list of possibilities. The upside of selloffs is they bring down prices indiscriminately and often create major buying opportunities in stocks that had been in the stratosphere. But it can be very difficult for investors who chased them there to hold on through the turmoil.

The results I present below are frankly better than even I expected, and I confess I’m excited about prospects. But remember that emotion is the worst enemy of every investor. Slow and steady wins the race and that’s exactly how everyone should be investing in these stocks.

The Numbers

Brookfield Renewable Power Fund’s (TSX: BRC-U, OTC: BRPFF) big news now is the pending close of its acquisition of the renewable energy assets of parent Brookfield Asset Management (TSX: BAM/A, NYSE: BAM). That deal will create one of the largest independent hydro power producers in the world, with massive growth potential and a very profitable presence in the contract wind power market as well.

In the meantime, the company has reported another solid quarter. Net operating cash flow per share again covered distributions comfortably by a ratio of 1.09-to-1, as revenue more than doubled on the addition of assets. That was a stark reversal from the break-even results of last year’s third quarter and reflects both a 4.8 percent boost in the average price of power sold and a 53.8 percent jump in generation.

Brookfield Renewable also continued to make good progress on its portfolio of new wind and hydro generation projects. The Comber wind plant has now installed all 72 turbines and commissioning and testing is in progress. Operations are expected to commence in the fourth quarter and begin adding to cash flow immediately.

In the unregulated power generation business capital costs are only recovered when projects are completed and producing electricity. As a result, every new plant Brookfield Renewable completes not only boosts cash flow but frees up funds to spend on other capital projects, pay off debt or boost dividends.

That’s the course Brookfield has followed for years as an income trust, and it looks set to do so as a New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)-listed master limited partnership (MLP) once the Brookfield Asset Management deal is completed, probably by early December. Brookfield Renewable Power is still a buy up to USD26 for those who don’t already own it.

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF) turned in what management termed “exceptional” third-quarter results, thanks in parts to the acquisition of Marsulex on Jun. 24, 2011, and what it calls “favorable” market conditions. Third-quarter revenue rose 88.3 percent, and cash flow nearly doubled to CAD38.1 million.

Distributable cash flow after maintenance capital expenditures blasted off to CAD0.85 per unit, up from last year’s CAD0.28. That was good enough for a 2.8-to-1 distribution coverage ratio, or a payout ratio of just 35.3 percent.

That may or may not induce the board of directors to consider a dividend increase, as the sulphuric acid business is often volatile. Management itself has a cautious view of the future, evidenced by some of the most conservative financial policies of any company. These numbers, however, will greatly enrich the company’s cash, even as the company continues with what’s been a smooth integration of the Marsulex operations.

One other thing is certain: These powerful results are way out of whack with investor gloom that’s kept the company’s current yield north of 9 percent. That’s a good reason to buy Chemtrade Logistics up to US15.50 if you haven’t yet.

Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF) delivered more in its third quarter results of what we’ve come to expect routinely. That’s steady growth in revenue, cash flow and profit that seems to transcend everything from economic weakness to competition to less-than-stellar movies to show at its growing portfolio of theaters.

Third-quarter revenue ticked up 3.1 percent despite a 1.6 percent decline in attendance, as the company continued to take advantage of opportunities to grow ancillary sales. Cash flow excluding one-time items rose 4.3 percent on a boost in margins to 20.8 percent from 20.5 percent a year ago. Adjusted free cash flow per share was 7.8 percent lower. But at CAD0.713, it nonetheless covered the monthly dividend of CAD0.1075 (CAD0.3225 per share for the quarter) by better than a 2-to-1 margin, for a payout ratio of just 45.2 percent.

Revenues were the strongest in Cineplex’ history, as the company was even able to grow total box office despite the drop in attendance. The company has also been able to complete 50 percent of its digital technology rollout to its theaters and expects to complete the rest next year, providing further opportunity to fatten results.

3D movies are increasingly a staple, with the top three films of the quarter all presented in that format: Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 2, Transformers: Dark of the Moon and The Smurfs. The company now has 671 digital projectors and 386 RealD 3D systems in operation, and 29 percent of its screens are now 3D capable. The company is also on track to open two IMAX locations in December, one in British Columbia and the other in suburban Ontario. That will bring its total IMAX theaters to 14, with more on target to enter operation next year.

This build-out is important for Cineplex, as 3D and IMAX movies are higher-margin and can increase profitability even when overall attendance is slack. The company will always be dependent to some extent on the quality of fare turned out by Hollywood. But it’s a lot easier to weather lean times with higher-quality facilities.

That being said, management expects a much stronger bill with Holiday Season coming on. In the company’s third-quarter conference call CEO Ellis Jacob stated his high expectations for such movies as Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Sherlock Holmes: The Game of Shadows and Steven Spielberg’s latest pair of films The Adventure of TinTin in 3D and War Horse. And expectation is for further profit gains the fourth quarter and into 2012.

Reflecting its strong results and even better prospects, Cineplex was able to extend its credit facilities for an additional five-year maturity, boosting the leverage covenant and cutting the cost of a CAD150 million line to an interest rate of just 3.215 percent. That’s down from a previous 5.345 percent. Management has also announced a plan to buy back up to 9.7 percent of its stock.

Cineplex shares are now up nearly 25 percent this year and have generally been able to hold their own during periods of volatility as well. In view of these results, I’m raising my buy target to USD26 for new investors.

Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF) turned in another very strong quarter. Funds from operations per share surged 20 percent pushing the payout ratio down to 63 percent. The company also cut its net debt by 20 percent and raised overall production 10 percent, as a 12 percent boost in liquids output (90.3 percent of output) offset a 2 percent decline in gas production. Output was up 9 percent sequentially over second-quarter levels.

The average realized price for the company’s crude oil was CAD83.65 a barrel, and it was CAD3.87 per thousand cubic feet for its natural gas. Oil and liquids are below the current spot market, which should augur further improvement next year. Finally, the company cut its operating expenses per barrel of oil equivalent by 6 percent, as it continues to realize efficiencies and advantages of scale in production.

Looking ahead, Crescent continues to find new opportunities to grow output, taking a stake in Alberta’s emerging Beaverhill Lake light oil play this summer. Results apparently continue to exceed expectations, and the company continues to build its land position in the area. It also purchased a swath of property in North Dakota that management believes will enhance its core Bakken output.

Capital expenditures for 2011 are now expected to be around CAD1.05 billion, up from a prior estimate of CAD1 billion. Expected exit production for the year, meanwhile, has also been raised to 77,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from a previous 76,500. Meanwhile, the company continues to control its use of debt, with management reporting CAD1 billion in undrawn bank lines and a net debt-to-cash flow ratio of just 1-to-1.

Ultimate profitability depends on energy prices, particularly oil, which provides substantially all cash flow. The company has hedged prices for a portion of its expected output through 2015, which combined with low costs, rising production and conservative finances should keep the dividend safe under all but the worst circumstances.

Crescent’s share price, however, is likely to remain volatile, as it’s been since I added the stock to the Aggressive Holdings in September. But for those who can hang in, this one is headed a lot higher, in addition to paying a dividend of about 6.6 percent. My buy-up-to-target remains USD48 for those who don’t already own Crescent Point.

Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF) averaged 73,245 barrels of oil equivalent per day production in the third quarter. That was about 3 percent less than management had guided to, due to the effect of wet weather and a tight market for equipment and labor. The company still expects to exit 2011, however, within its production target of 81,000 to 84,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and drilling activity continues to deliver, in management’s words, “above expectations.”

On the financial side, the payout ratio for the quarter came in at 79 percent, including CAD32 million in taxes from the sale of some Marcellus Shale assets. Excluding this one-time item, the payout was considerably lower at 62.8 percent. As for debt, the company has now drawn CAD265 million on its CAD1 billion credit facility, and debt-to-cash flow is modest at 1.3-to-1. The credit line matures Oct. 13, 2014, and could in a pinch pay off all of the remaining corporate-level debt and then some.

Operating costs rose to CAD10.92 per barrel of oil equivalent, reflecting a CAD2.5 million charge to clean up a landslide, as well as truck shortages in the Bakken region. That’s induced management to raise its cost guidance to CAD9.60 per barrel of oil equivalent for the year, from the prior CAD9.20.

That’s somewhat disappointing, as are the production numbers. But with management sticking to exit guidance, improvement shouldn’t be long in coming. Meanwhile, the company has locked in prices for roughly half its expected 2012 oil production at an average price of CAD95 per barrel. That’s considerably above the average selling price of CAD77.57 per barrel in the third quarter, and it also augurs better results next year. The average realized price for gas, meanwhile, was just CAD3.73 per thousand cubic feet, a level that also has little downside and much potential for improvement.

Looking ahead, management’s strategy of focusing on liquids and potential blockbuster reserves in the Bakken, the Marcellus Shale and Deep Basin appears to be paying off. As with all producers, the company’s cash flow will continue to be heavily affected by energy prices, but financial policies are conservative enough to keep the balance sheet strong and the dividend intact barring an extremely unlikely 2008-style decline.

That gives Enerplus a measure of safety the vast majority of How They Rate Oil and Gas producers don’t share. Still trading below conservative valuations of its reserves, Enerplus is a buy up to USD33 for those who don’t already own it.

Innergex Renewable Energy Inc’s (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF) third-quarter generation came in 31 percent higher than the long-term average for its facilities. That was a major factor behind the doubling of revenue and cash flow. More impressive from a long-term standpoint, however, is management’s continued strong execution on new generation projects and integration of the Clockworks acquisition.

Adjusted net earnings were up 153.6 percent, as the company completely overcame the negative impact of weaker hydro flows in the first half of the year and then some. The nine-month payout ratio fell to just 59.6 percent based on adjusted cash flows from operating activities, which rose 85.2 percent.

Innergex is fundamentally a build-and-earn story. The Montagne-Seche wind farm is expected to come on line Dec. 1, as the last turbine is now up and the substation energized. The first of the two Gros-Morne wind farms will also come on stream Dec. 1, adding another 100.5 megawatts of generating capacity under long-term contract. And the Stardale solar facility is on track for start up in early 2012.

Looking further ahead, the company reports solid progress on several hydro facilities that appear on track for completion in early 2013. And it has six applications filed win the Ontario Power Authority to build a total of 59 megawatts of solar capacity and sell the output under long-term contracts.

Each completed project contributes to cash flow, boosting scale as well as Innergex’ ability to build more plants. The company typically arranges financing for each project, with the term of the loan corresponding to the life of the plant’s power sales contract. Management this summer more than doubled the size of the credit agreement to CAD350 million from CAD170 million, further enhancing its ability to grow. Meanwhile, there are no debt maturities at the corporate level until Dec. 31, 2013, when a CAD53.4 million loan (CAD47.55 million outstanding) must be rolled over.

That adds up to a very low-risk business plan and conservative balance sheet, and reliable returns for investors. The timing of a return to dividend growth likely depends on how many more projects are completed and how fast the company builds scale. But Innergex Renewable Energy is a solid buy up to USD10 for those who don’t already own it.

Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, OTC: PBNPF) recorded adjusted earnings of CAD0.28 per share in the third quarter, up 33.3 percent from last year’s CAD0.21. Adjusted cash flow from operating activities was CAD0.51, up 57 percent over the past year. Both figures exclude one-time, non-cash items. That adds up to 76.5 percent payout ratio based on cash flow.

Results were spurred by the successful completion of the heavy oil diluent Nipisi and Mitsue pipeline projects, a CAD57 million midstream terminal acquisition and generally strong throughput throughout the asset base. The company also reported it’s nearing the completion of the Musreau deep cut facility, which is on track to begin adding cash flow this year. So will new projects to expand its trucking fleet, the capacity of gas processing facilities and planned expansion of pipeline assets.

All of these projects are under long-term contracts with major producers and transporters of energy, some of the most creditworthy customers anywhere. And many are also based on capacity, meaning Pembina gets paid no matter how much energy is transported.

The larger the company has become in recent years, the better able it is to pursue new and larger projects with the potential for an even bigger boost to cash flow. The explosion of demand for natural gas liquids (NGLs) has become almost a big a deal for the bottom line as the signature oil sands projects, with management currently projecting an additional CAD75 million to CAD90 million in cash flow by the end of 2013 from ongoing construction. As the company announced last month, it’s ramping up its gas handling assets in the Deep Basin, as well as the Berland area of west central Alberta via an alliance with Canadian oil major Talisman Energy (TSX: TLM, NYSE: TLM).

In a presentation last summer Pembina Pipeline CEO Bob Michaleski hinted the company would be returning to dividend growth in coming years, as it continue to gain scale and bring new capital projects on stream. At this point it appears aggressive capital spending plans on new projects remain management’s primary goal, as it attempts to strike while the iron is hot.

That’s likely to keep a lid on dividend growth in the near term, and I’m not inclined to raise my buy target from the current USD25 at this time. But Pembina Pipeline would be a strong bargain on any dip to that level or lower for new investors.

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF) boosted its production per share by a colossal 41 percent in the third quarter. In addition, management raised its guidance for full-year output by 20 percent, with a further 5 percent boost from the current 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day expected by the end of the year.

Funds from operations–the key measure of profitability–rose 35 percent to CAD0.62 per share. That kicked down the payout ratio to just 29 percent. Management also ratcheted up capital spending by 75 percent from year-earlier levels to CAD111.6 million, drilling 20 gross wells.

What continues to impress me about Peyto is that it’s able to produce explosive results like these even with the price of natural gas–its primary product–flat on its back. Realized commodity selling prices overall fell another 8 percent during the quarter from year-earlier levels. Natural gas (89 percent of output) selling prices fell an even sharper 14 percent.

The ability to seemingly expand production and reserves at will is one reason why. Another is the fact that Peyto has the lowest operating costs in the industry. And the more it expands output, the more it’s been able to realize the advantage of scale to cut them further. Operating costs in the third quarter were just CAD2.14 per barrel of oil equivalent, or CAD2.90 per barrel of oil equivalent including transportation. Total cash costs were cut another 19 percent over year-earlier levels, pushing operating margin to an incredible 77 percent.

This year the company has built facilities to boost production another 16,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and there are additional projects on the way that will add volumes during the winter heating season. Debt-to-cash flow, meanwhile, has been reduced to 1.6-to-1, from 2-to-1 a year ago. And Peyto has also extended its bank lines to CAD725 million, providing further financial flexibility for even more growth.

Ironically, the company could grow even faster were it not for management’s extremely conservative investment strategy, which focuses closely on maximizing return on equity (16 percent in the third quarter) and return on capital employed (13 percent). As returns are constrained by weak natural gas prices, Peyto has literally had to watch every dollar to ensure rising output doesn’t sacrifice profitability.

The good news is these results once again clearly show management is up to the task. That hasn’t prevented Peyto’s stock price from following energy prices up and down in jagged fashion this year. But they do show this company is stronger than ever as an enterprise, even with gas prices low. And should gas recover, sky’s the limit for earnings and the share price. Buy Peyto Exploration & Development up to my target of USDS22 if you haven’t yet.

Provident Energy Ltd (TSX: PVE, NYSE: PVX) boosted its gross operating margin by an extremely robust 38 percent in the third quarter of 2011. Stronger pricing for natural gas liquids (NGLs) paced the results, as did increased volumes at the midstream energy company’s assets, particularly its Empress East facilities.

Per share adjusted funds flow from operations–the company’s primary measure of profitability–surged 43.8 percent to 23 cents. That pushed the payout ratio down to just 61 percent. Total debt to cash flow fell to 1.9-to-1, down from 2.1-to-1 at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, Provident spent CAD28 million to grow its assets during the quarter, chiefly cavern development and terminals, setting the stage for further cash flow gains in 2012.

The results induced management to raise its full year cash flow guidance to the “upper end” of its previously announced range of CAD245 million to CD285 million. And those numbers continue to be based on relatively conservative estimates for NGLs pricing, holding out the possibility the final results will be better still.

Management to date has made no promises about dividend increases, in part because the company will start owing taxes in coming years as it winds down CAD1 billion in tax pools and non-capital losses. Those will only be partly offset by new tax pools created by capital spending. But by becoming increasingly profitable and expanding its base of NGLs-focused assets, the company is certainly putting itself in position to easily absorb new levies and boost its payout in the future. For example, a new venture with Nova Chemicals promises to ramp up usage of NGLs for manufacturing in Canada, chiefly plastics, creating a lasting source of demand.

To finance its continued growth, the company has extended its credit facilities by an additional three years to a maturity date of Oct. 14, 2014. Its convertible debentures now have an average maturity of six years, further reducing near-term financing risk. And Provident has hedged out 75 percent of its commodity price exposure for 2011, as well as 59 percent for 2012.

During the company’s third-quarter conference call CEO Doug Haughey announced plans over the next two years to “deploy approximately CAD280 million of growth capital including CAD135 million in 2012 and CAD145 million in 2013.” That’s a “material increase” from the prior guidance range of CAD70 million for 2013, and reflects a new strategy to deploy CAD100 million to CD125 million annually on growth.

That, in Haughey’s words, “is based on a substantial increase in new fee for service opportunities” both lift cash flow and reduce risk to the company’s overall bottom line by reducing reliance on commodity price-sensitive operations. In short, they’re the path to Provident’s targeted annual cash flow growth of 5 to 7 percent and “the potential for dividend increases for our shareholders.”

It all adds up to an exceptionally bullish future for Provident, which as a virtual pure play on NGLs infrastructure in Canada is also a potential takeover target in the consolidating industry. We may have to wait until 2013 for a dividend increase. But these results are good enough for me to raise my buy target to USD9.50 for those who don’t already own Provident Energy.

Student Transportation Inc’s (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB) share price volatility since the summer and high yield of 10 percent-plus paint the picture of a company at risk to a dividend cut. Ironically, the company continues to put up results demonstrating just the opposite.

Fiscal first-quarter 2012 (end Sept. 30) are basically summer numbers for the company, which not surprisingly derives the lion’s share of income from bus operations during the school year. Coupled with offseason costs, revenue did beat Bay Street projections and in the words of CFO Patrick Walker “reflect the continued momentum of growth secured in the prior fiscal year.” Management also affirmed the 12 percent boost in annualized school bus transportation revenue from acquisitions and new contracts announced over the summer.

Turning to the numbers, first-quarter revenue rose 18.6 percent from year-earlier levels. Cash flow was negative at CAD2.4 million, and net loss doubled to CAD0.18 per share from CAD0.09 a year ago. That partly reflects the company’s larger size and therefore higher costs. But it’s mainly due to two one-time, non-operating items: a CAD4.7 million re-measurement loss on US dollar denominated bonds and a CAD2.8 million unrealized loss on currency hedging contracts. Absent those two items, net loss was only CAD3.8 million, well below last year’s CAD5 million.

Given that the US dollar appreciated mainly due to the global flight to safety, that loss can easily become a gain when things settle down. Meanwhile, the company looks set for a big boost in profits during the year.

Management has also announced a stock repurchase plan to take advantage of the current low price. And this month it successfully rolled over CAD35 million of senior notes for an additional five years. The new interest rate is a fixed 4.24 percent, a substantial savings from the pre-rollover rate of 5.94 percent.

This transaction clears all debt maturities before Oct. 31, 2014, when the company has CAD25.6 million left of a CAD51.7 million convertible bond. That bond is currently priced at conversion value of 194.1748 shares (CAD1,000 par value). So long as Student Transportation shares stay above CAD5.15 per, this bond will almost certainly be converted into stock rather than cash.

Equally important, this rollover at a lower interest rate is a clear sign of bond investors’ confidence in the company’s prospects. Sooner or later, stock investors will come around. In the meantime, Student Transportation is a buy up to my target of USD7 for those who don’t yet own it.

Third-Quarter Earnings Dates

Here are the confirmed and expected reporting dates for the rest of the Canadian Edge Portfolio, including links to articles with my analysis for those that have already submitted numbers. Note that most companies announce earnings after the close on the date shown, with a conference call the following morning.

Expect to see my analysis in a Flash Alert on the day of the conference call, rather than the day shown below in parentheses. I’ll have a full recap of all the numbers in the December CE.

Conservative Holdings

Aggressive Holdings

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