8/12/11: The Earnings, In Brief

This week’s headlines belonged to the market turbulence gripping Wall Street. Following last Friday’s downgrade of US finances by S&P, stocks plunged Monday, recovered sharply Tuesday, dropped again Wednesday, bounced back again Thursday and again rallied Friday.

All in all, it was one of the most turbulent weeks in memory, and it left many investors shaken and confused. Ironically, however, the most important developments of the last several days for Canadian Edge readers have nothing to do with this frenzy.

Rather, they were the flurry of second-quarter earnings numbers coming out of Portfolio recommendations. Like the rest of the market, our stocks were volatile this week, riding the market’s ups and downs as investors tried to discern where the global economy is going. But like our Portfolio companies announcing previously, they by and large confirmed the strength of their underlying businesses–as well as their continuing ability to withstand the slow and jagged economic growth that’s likely the rest of the year.

This week I had the privilege of meeting many of you at the San Francisco Money Show. The downside of that is there’s not a lot of time to write long reports before the weekend, even on developments as important as these, and particularly with so many reporting.

I have, however, put together my initial impressions on the reporting companies, along with my current advice. I’ll be following up with more information as relevant in coming days. There are also a few recommendations yet to report, which I’ve listed below.

Artis REIT (TSX; AX-U, OTC: ARESF) reported an 11.5 percent jump in its second-quarter funds from operations per unit. That’s a good sign the real estate investment trust’s recent acquisition spree is starting to pay off.

Revenue surged 68 percent over last year’s tally, reflecting an increase to 159 income-producing properties. Portfolio occupancy, however, rose by 30 basis points to 95.6 percent, even as rents were solid. The payout ratio came down to 93.1 percent from 103.8 percent last year. And debt-to-total capital fell from 52.6 percent at the beginning of the year to just 50.7 percent today.

Looking ahead, Artis continues to make targeted acquisitions. But the expansion of the past two years has left it stronger and better positioned for growth than at any time in its history, as well as better protected against a setback in any one geographic market. Now yielding 8 percent again, Artis REIT is a buy up to USD15.

Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT) posted second-quarter earnings that were right in line with management’s prior guidance. Management affirmed its full-year 2011 projections and dividends at least through 2016, as well as its intention to boost its dividend 5 percent at the close of the Capital Power LP acquisition. That deal also appears well on track, with a shareholder vote slated later this year.

The shares have backed off below my buy target in recent days, most likely due to some concerns about permanently financing the Capital Power deal in today’s uncertain capital markets. Atlantic does, however, have financing agreements in place that appear to provide enough flexibility on this score to give it time to wait out any turbulence that may occur. If you don’t yet own Atlantic Power, now’s a good time to pick some up below my buy target of USD15.

Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF) had another quarter of tough earnings comparisons, as it continues to work through several quarters of backlog based on lower-margin contracts. Dividends, however, remain solidly covered by cash, and the company has no debt. Moreover, management cites strong growth in order backlog and the recently announced merger with HJ O’Connell as reasons to expect a strong boost in profitability in the second half of 2011.

The upshot: The company’s future is still bright, even as its share price has come down to bargain levels. Buy up to my target of USD12.

Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF) posted a second-quarter payout ratio of 78.1 percent, slightly above last year’s 73.3 percent. The primary reason was an increase in outstanding units from equity offerings used to finance the apartment owner’s recent acquisitions and to control debt. That dilution will be reversed in subsequent quarters, as the new properties generate a rising stream of cash flow.

Occupancy and rents moved higher during the period and management guided to “accelerated” profit growth the rest of the year. Buy up to USD20 if you haven’t yet.

Cineplex Inc’s (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF) second-quarter revenue rose 6.6 percent, as a 17 percent increase in “value added revenue” combined with a 3.8 percent jump in attendance. That’s particularly encouraging given the generally lackluster spring movie fare and the more exciting summer bill, which should contribute to a strong third quarter. Cash flow margin rose to 17.2 percent from 17.1 percent a year ago. Free cash flow per unit was off slightly, but dividend coverage was still strong with a 64 percent payout ratio.

Looking ahead, management continues to have success controlling costs and reducing dependence on Hollywood’s ups and downs with ancillary sales. Combined with conservative financial policies, that should ensure the safety of the dividend, even as the theater owner expands its presence in Canada’s fastest-growing markets. Buy Cineplex up to USD23.

Just Energy Group Inc (TSX; JE, OTC: JUSTF) posted solid growth in marketing revenues, and customers and management maintained its full fiscal year 2012 margin growth target of 5 percent. That affirms the safety of the dividend, which in recent days has approached 10 percent.

The basic business of attracting customers to retail power and gas offerings in the US and Canada looks quite healthy. That’s particularly true of the “green energy” piece. Buy up to USD16 if you haven’t yet.

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF) had another huge quarter, riding a 42 percent increase in energy production per share to a 32 percent boost in funds from operations per share. That was despite an 11 percent drop in realized selling prices for its oil and gas.

Operating costs–already the industry’s lowest–were slashed another 16 percent, as the company continued to realize the benefits of technology and increased scale. Meanwhile, it set the stage for more growth ahead, ramping up capital expenditures by 84 percent. Debt-to-annualized cash flow dropped from 2-to-1 to just 1.5-to-1, as the company was able to fund CAPEX and dividends with cash flow. The payout ratio came in at just 31 percent of cash flow.

Some investors have asked me why own Peyto since it yields so little. In my view, these numbers provide all the answers anyone should need. Mainly, this is a highly efficient company set for robust growth, even if gas prices remain subdued—and exponential returns when gas does tick higher. It also continues to trade between 65 and 70 cents per dollar of value of its rapidly expanding reserve base. Peyto is a solid buy up to USD23.

Provident Energy Ltd (TSX: PVE, NYSE: PVX) swung to a second-quarter profit on a 14 percent boost in revenue. The company continues to enjoy a robust business in natural gas liquids (NGLs) infrastructure and is successfully adding new assets as well. Net income covered the dividend by a better than 3-to-1 margin, and cash flow was also solid. Looking ahead, the rest of the year should be equally positive as the NGLs business grows and the company realizes the first cash flow from its oil field hauling acquisition. Earnings should be little exposed to recent weakness in oil prices as well, thanks to hedging and focus on fee-based infrastructure revenue. Buy up to USD9 if you haven’t yet.

Here are the companies yet to report second-quarter results as of this Flash Alert. Look for coverage of the numbers next week.

Conservative Holdings

  • Capstone Infrastructure Corp (TSX: CSE, OTC: MCQPF)–Aug. 12 (confirmed)
  • IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIGF)–Aug. 12 (confirmed)
  • Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–Aug. 10 (confirmed)

Aggressive Holdings

  • Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–Aug. 12 (confirmed)
  • Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, OTC: STUXF)–Sept. 23 (estimate)

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