3/19/10: Solid Trio

Three more Canadian Edge Portfolio recommendations have reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2010 results. That leaves only Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, OTC; ATLIF), which is slated to release numbers on March 30. I continue to update earnings information in How They Rate as it becomes available.

As expected, year-over-year comparisons were tough, owing to North American economic weakness. The good news is all three generated cash flow to support balance sheets, distributions and long-term plans for growth. That’s the best possible sign they’ll continue to do so in 2010 and beyond.

Artis REIT’s (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF) fourth-quarter distributable cash flow and funds from operations per share dipped 25 percent from 2008 levels, largely due to the cost of repositioning its Western Canada portfolio. Underlying portfolio health, however, remained strong. Occupancy rose to 98.1 percent including committed space and 96.6 percent based on current tenancy.

That was in large part due to management’s strategy of acquiring properties with below-market rents in the good times. Despite a glut of properties–particularly in its core Alberta market–average rents rose 10.3 percent from fourth-quarter 2008 levels, while rents on renewing leases rose 16 percent for the year. Net operating income–the best measure of portfolio profitability–rose 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter versus year-earlier levels. And, despite the shortfall in distributable income, the distribution remains well covered by cash flow.

Artis has also realized the benefit of spacing out expiring leases in its portfolio. Coupled with high tenant quality, that’s allowed the REIT to weather the property downturn better than the vast majority of competitors. Only 15.9 percent of the portfolio’s leasable area is up for renewal in 2010; an additional 14.4 percent is set to expire in 2011. And to date management has renewed nearly half of expiring leases in 2010, along with 15.9 percent of 2011 leases. Tenant retention thus far is a superior 83.3 percent, with a weighted average rental increase of 7.2 percent achieved on renewing leases.

Looking ahead, Artis’ fortunes will depend heavily on what happens in Alberta, home to nearly half of its properties. But that should be a major plus as the energy patch continues to rebound.

Meanwhile, with nearly 10 percent of rents coming from government entities and another 56 percent from blue chip “national” tenants, it remains well protected if markets rebound slower than expected. That’s a powerful reason to buy Artis REIT up to USD12 if you haven’t already.

Northern Property REIT’s (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF) per unit fourth-quarter funds from operations fell 5.9 percent. The primary reason: Properties in northern Alberta–particularly in the apartment portfolio–and resource-producing areas in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut continue to suffer from a supply glut. The REIT also incurred more maintenance capital expenditures at its portfolio, as it took advantage of vacancies to upgrade properties.

Happily, in the words of president and CEO Jim Britton: “Outside of Alberta our portfolios weathered the recession very well. We were helped by lower heating oil costs, lower mortgage interest rates and decreased trust administration expense. And the REIT is now experiencing apartment rental market improvement across our system.”

That augurs well for 2010 and beyond. But Northern’s greatest appeal is, despite these very tough conditions, its payout ratio (73 percent in the fourth quarter), balance sheet (debt just 57.7 percent of book value) and top-notch portfolio quality ensure investors’ fortunes even if Canada’s energy patch takes longer than expected to bounce back. Northern Property REIT is a buy for those who don’t own it already anytime it trades below USD22.

IBI Income Fund (TSX: IBG-U, OTC: IBIBF) took its fee-for-service revenue base up 15.1 percent in 2009 to a new record. Like Bird Construction Income Fund (TSX: BDT-U, OTC: BIRDF), IBI had converted the bulk of its business from the private sector–which remains depressed in Canada as well as the US where the trust has recently expanded rapidly–to the public sector over the past couple years. Today some 65 percent of business is public-sector related.

Currency adjustments due to the rising Canadian dollar took an 8.6 percent bite out of cash flow and led to a 12 percent decline in distributable cash flow. Excluding one-time factors, however, the payout remains well covered. Moreover, management has since largely eliminated currency swings as a factor in the future by balancing debt interest against US dollar receivables.

Looking ahead, IBI is well positioned to continue its growth-through-acquisitions strategy and has expanded its infrastructure design services operation to China as well. A 10 percent increase in staff in 2009 made the trust one of the few businesses in North America to expand its global capability, a competitive advantage that should pay off richly with the world economy on the mend in 2010 and beyond. That should keep IBI’s underlying business growing, and margins should turn again to the upside this year and beyond.

If there was anything disappointing about IBI’s results it was that management said nothing concrete about its plans to convert to a corporation, and particularly about its post-conversion dividend plans. The next major opportunity will be when first quarter earnings are announced, which should be some time in May.

Until then, the trust is likely to trade with a yield of near 10 percent, as investors speculate on what its future payout will be. The bright side is that those who don’t own this very solid company still have a chance to buy some shares. My buy target remains USD17 for those who don’t already own IBI Income Fund.

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