11/16/09: More Good Numbers

All third quarter earnings numbers for Canadian Edge Portfolio recommendations are now in. Despite continuing economic weakness–and the impact of sharply lower energy prices on oil and gas producers–the underlying businesses of all of our holdings are still healthy. In fact, balance sheets are stronger and distributions are still well-covered.

The upshot: I’m sticking with all of them. And, despite the rally we’ve seen since early March, I expect more gains ahead.

Here are the highlights. Look for more in CE’s weekly companion Maple Leaf Memo, with a complete wrapup in the December CE.

Ag Growth International (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF) enjoyed a 56 percent increase in third quarter earnings per share, to CAD1.17 per share, riding a 12 percent boost in revenue and 25 percent jump in adjusted cash flow.

That was enough to cover distributions of CAD0.17 per month by more than a 2-to-1 margin, even as it provided funds for the company’s continued growth. That management expects in plenty as the market for its grain handling equipment remains robust.

The US Dept of Agriculture now expects the second-largest corn crop in recorded history for 2009 and a record soybean crop. The company expects to enter 2010 with “low levels of inventory,” which will keep its North American market strong as it waits for the developing world to recover.

That’s a strong picture for a company that’s already converted to a corporation without cutting its distribution. Buy Ag Growth International up to USD33.

Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF) saw its revenue rise 0.8 percent, fueling a 3.6 percent increasing same-property net operating income (NOI). That’s a compelling testament to management’s skill and the high quality of its properties, further attested to by a 96.7 percent occupancy rate up from 96.2 percent in the second quarter.

The funds from operations (FFO) payout ratio was only 69.2 percent, while debt was reduced to 47.7 percent of book value from 51.6 percent at the beginning of the year. The company has already renewed leases on nearly a fifth of its expiring leases for 2010, which comprise 15.8 percent of its portfolio, and had completed 96.3 percent of leasing activity for 2009 by the end of the third quarter.

A recent deal to sell property in Calgary and buy elsewhere in Western Canada should reduce exposure to the most exposed areas of the energy patch. In the meantime, Artis appears to have weathered the worst operating environment in its history while continuing to strengthen.

That’s a major endorsement for the safety of its dividend, which is exempt from 2011 taxation. Buy Artis REIT up to USD12 if you haven’t yet.

Atlantic Power Corp (TSX; ATP-U, OTC: ATPWF) expects to complete its conversion from income participating security (IPS) to corporation on November 27, assuming necessary shareholder approvals are received. At that point, the current distribution will be 100 percent equity dividend, as opposed to roughly 60 percent debt interest/40 percent equity dividend now.

Third quarter distributable cash flow rose 22.7 percent, driving the payout ratio in the seasonally weak summer quarter to 123 percent. The nine-month payout ratio is 83 percent, and management has increased expected full-year cash flow by 5 percent to CAD95 million to CAD100 million.

The key to the improved results was the Auburndale project, which helped the company boost cash flow by 3 percent. Well-run Atlantic Power Corp, one of the safest double-digit yields around, remains a buy up to USD10.

Bell Aliant Regional Communications Income Fund (TSX: BA-U, OTC: BLIAF) increased distributable cash flow (DCF) 15.9 percent, as cash flow rose 1.1 percent and capital expenditures were lower than year-earlier levels. That was despite a 2.6 percent dip in revenue, as the company lost basic phone customers at a 4.9 percent annualized rate.

Bell continues to boost its Internet business at a rapid rate, adding Internet protocol television customers at the fastest rate in its history. Overall web revenue rose 11.1 percent on a 7.1 percent increase in customers served.

The main point of uncertainty at Bell is what it will do with its dividend after converting to a corporation in late 2010. Management plans to offer more color on the subject in its February 2010 guidance. Other than that, its future as a broadband communications company serving rural areas looks assured, as it signs on new business at a faster rate than competitors and rolls out its fiber-to-the-home in partnership with the provincial governments of Atlantic Canada.

Already pricing in a dividend cut for 2011, the bar of expectations is low and should be easily beaten. Bell Aliant Regional Communications Income Fund is a buy up to USD28.

Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF) posted a third quarter payout ratio based on FFO of just 78.4 percent, as funds from operations of 35.7 cents Canadian basically matched year-earlier totals.

Operating revenue was up 2.8 percent, boosted in part by a 1.5 percent increase in average monthly rents. Occupancy levels and bad debt levels remained stable, while same property net operating income rose for the 15th consecutive quarter. Leasing activity has been steady, a testament to the diversification and balance of the property portfolio, as well as its high quality.

Meanwhile, its debt management has held down interest expense, and debt coverage was just 1.27-to-1 at the end of the third quarter, down from 1.31-to-1 a year ago. Canadian Apartment Properties REIT, yielding over 8 percent, is a strong buy up to USD15 for those who don’t already own it.

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF) reported FFO of CAD0.38 cents per share in its third quarter, up from CAD0.36 in the second quarter and easily covering the monthly distribution rate of CAD0.10 per share.

Demand improved in the third quarter, particularly for the company’s major product, sulphuric acid. Importantly, this is precisely what management told us earlier this year, when it appeared weakening economic conditions were on the verge of overwhelming cash flow. And management continues to assert that the combination of maintenance capital expenditures and distributions are still comfortably covered by cash flow.

Meanwhile, the company continues to seek new efficiencies and markets, with an ongoing initiative on track to boost volumes of sulphuric acid to market by 10 percent. Cash flows won’t return to 2008 levels until economic growth picks up speed. In the meantime, however, the yield of nearly 13 percent looks solid for aggressive investors. Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund is a buy up to USD10.

CML Healthcare Income Fund (TSX: CLC-U, OTC: CMHIF) enjoyed a third quarter revenue boost of nearly 20 percent, thanks to successful expansion in the US and Canada.

The medical imaging and radiology testing company will have many more opportunities to grow if the US Democrats succeed in expanding health insurance. In the meantime, it’s extremely well-placed to continue its conservative growth through acquisitions in Canada as well.

Cash flows covered distributions and capital expenditures in the third quarter by a comfortable margin, with a payout ratio of 83.8 percent. Management has stated it doesn’t intend to convert to a corporation before the end of 2010 and won’t set a distribution policy before then. That leaves uncertainty that will continue to depress the share price. But CML Healthcare Income Fund remains a buy up to USD13 for patient and conservative investors.

Enerplus Resources Fund (TSX: ERF-U, NYSE: ERF) paid out 45 percent of its DCF in dividends during the third quarter. Distributions plus capital spending equaled 68 percent of distributable cash flow for the third quarter, and a total of 73 percent for the first nine months of 2009.

The trust expects to boost capital spending in the fourth quarter, bringing capital spending plus dividends to roughly 100 percent of full-year cash flow. That spending includes a recently acquired stake in the Marcellus Shale area of the US, Enerplus’ first major foray south of the border.

Management has also been very successful this year reducing debt, holding its net debt-to-cash flow ratio to just 0.7, and has also brought down operating costs. That’s helped to overcome the dramatic drop in energy prices over the past year and keep the trust on track for long-run prosperity.

Enerplus’ 2011 strategy remains to convert to a corporation and from then on “balance” the future level of distributions with capital spending. The level of the dividend, therefore, will depend heavily on energy prices.

But selling well below the value of its assets in the ground, Enerplus Resources Fund remains a buy up to USD30 for those who don’t already own it.

Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF) produced another steady quarter, bringing its payout ratio down to 65.4 percent of FFO from 65.6 percent a year earlier. Revenue and cash flow were slightly higher as FFO per unit was basically flat at 57.2 cents Canadian.

Same-store NOI fell 3.9 percent, as several of the REIT’s major markets weakened, particularly in Western Canada. Northern managed to offset most of the impact, however, with expense reductions, including a cut in its average weighted cost of mortgage debt to 4.89 percent from 5.13 percent at the beginning of the year. The Nunavut portfolio was a high point, the slowdown in the oil patch the major low point.

Looking ahead, energy weakness will remain a challenge. But with the its strong portfolio, solid balance sheet and secure distribution coverage, Northern Property REIT remains a solid bet and a buy up to USD20.

Peyto Energy Trust (TSX; PEY-U, OTC: PEYUF) saw its payout ratio rise to 93 percent in the third quarter. That was entirely due to a 66 percent drop in natural gas prices before hedging and 35 percent after, the company’s worst pricing environment since 2002.

Cash flow was further reduced by an 11 percent cutback in production, in reaction to the lower prices. If gas prices weaken further, the distribution of this natural gas-reliant trust is likely to be cut. In addition, management hasn’t said what it will do with the payout in 2011, when it will convert to a corporation.

Peyto, however, is far from a weakling. Proven reserve life is 17 years, and the trust has had no problem raising funds, even as it has cut net debt 13 percent over the past year and reduced operating costs 2 percent. Although third quarter capital expenditures of CAD28.7 million are well below year-earlier levels of CAD62.3 million, they’re also considerably above second quarter’s CAD4.7 million.

Management points to a better environment for its activities in the fourth quarter and anticipates new, “more efficient” production in 2010. Its share price well below net asset value, Peyto Energy Trust is a strong value up to USD12.

Provident Energy Trust (TSX: PVE-U, NYSE: PVX) paid out 86 percent of its DCF in dividends in its third quarter and 79 percent for the first nine months of the year.

Year-over-year comparisons were hurt mainly by lower natural gas prices, which hit both upstream and midstream profits. The midstream business saw a 12 percent drop in throughput of natural gas liquids. Beneath the 61 percent drop in FFO, however, is an increasingly healthy, diversified company that now derives the lion’s share of its revenue from fee-based businesses.

Debt was reduced sharply, in large part with the sale of non-strategic properties that will reduce costs and improve efficiency of production. Management is apparently still committed to the monthly dividend rate of CAD0.06 per share, and the units are undervalued relative to what the trust has in the ground. On that basis, Provident Energy Trust is still a buy up to USD7, but only for aggressive investors.

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