3/9/11: Playing the MENA Turmoil

The Turkish economy may lack the long-term structural growth potential of India and Indonesia, but the economy is expanding at a respectable rate of about 5 percent.  Meanwhile, Turkey’s market trades at about 10 times earnings. Emerging markets as a whole, as represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, trade at about 13.8 times earnings. Not only is Turkey one of the world’s most affordable emerging markets, it offers a compelling dividend yield of more than 2 percent. A 16 percent decline in the Turkish market provides a good entry point for investors.

A new addition to the Growth Portfolio, iShares MSCI Turkey Index Fund (NYSE: TUR) is a buy up to 60.

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The Middle East and North Africa will continue to be roiled by riots and unrest in the coming months. But the turmoil will ultimately be resolved and the oil will keep flowing. In line with our outlook, we’ve added Market Vectors Gulf States (NYSE: MES) to our Short-Term Opportunities Portfolio.

Like most ETFs focused on the MENA region, the fund is heavily exposed to financials. These holdings are extremely sensitive to the domestic political environment and represent an excellent play on regional stabilization. The fund is one of the region’s more liquid offerings with an average bid-ask spread of 0.66 percent–in recent days it has tightened closer to 0.4 percent–reducing costs.

Betting on stabilization in the MENA region, Market Vectors Gulf States is the newest addition to our Short-Term Opportunities Portfolio and rates a buy under 22.

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