Flash Alert: March 10, 2008

Earnings Reprise

Publishing deadlines wait for no man. Earnings reports, however, are made in trusts and companies’ own time. And when it comes to annual filings, the extensive requirements mean their timing doesn’t always fit with ours.

I was able to recap most of our Canadian Edge recommended trusts’ earnings and put them into context in time for the March issue, which was e-mailed to you last Friday. And as I stated there, the news on the numbers is generally upbeat and strong confirmation for holding our positions in this very difficult market.

Since then, developments at two reporting trusts–Advantage Energy Income Fund (NYSE: AAV, TSX: AVN-U) and Arctic Glacier Income Fund (TSX: AG-U, OTC: AGUNF)–need commentary. I highlight them below.

Note that payout ratios and trading advice for these trusts has already been added to the How They Rate Table on the Canadian Edge Web site, along with a brief comment on results. Atlantic Power Income Fund (TSX: ATP-U, OTC: ATPWF), Paramount Energy Trust (TSX: PMT-U, OTC: PMGYF), Provident Energy Services (NYSE: PVX, TSX: PVE-U) and Trinidad Energy Services (TSX: TDG-U, OTC: TDGNF) will be reporting in coming days.

Advantage Energy, as expected, reported a drop in per-share totals for fourth quarter funds from operations (FFO) and revenues, largely because of the impact of a 31.2 percent increase in outstanding shares. Those new shares were minted when the trust completed its merger with Sound Energy, which closed Sept. 5. The trust’s payout ratio, however, was a solid 72.4 percent, providing a sizable cushion for its generous 13 percent-plus distribution.

More important, the results demonstrated management’s ongoing success integrating the Sound merger, which enabled the trust to replace 379 percent of 2007 oil and gas output with new reserves. Finding, development and acquisition costs overall were a reasonable CAD15.19 barrels of oil equivalent for proven plus probable reserves and just CAD14.77 for the additions from Sound. Reserve life in the proven category alone is now a superior nine years—12.1 years including probable reserves.

Those are strong underpinnings for future growth at Advantage. So is the fact that it sold natural gas at an average price of just CAD6.97 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) and oil at just CAD70.48 per barrel, well below current spot prices. At last count, some 51 percent of gas and 38 percent of oil were hedged for 2008 at prices more than 20 percent above those fourth quarter levels, locking in a healthy increase in cash flow this year even if energy prices do back well off from current highs.

Long term, Advantage’s eye still seems to be on growing larger. The ranks of smaller trusts like the former Sound Energy have dwindled in recent months largely because of “take unders” by larger trusts like Advantage, but there are still opportunities in smaller nontrusts. And with Advantage trading for little more than book value and at nearly a third less than conservative estimates of the net asset value of reserves, it could become a target itself.

As for 2011 trust taxation, management states: “It is the Fund’s intention to continue to be a cash distributing entity after 2010. We will continue to closely monitor industry dynamics and are considering a number of alternative structures in order to maximize after-tax value for Unitholders.”

And at last count, it has CAD1.7 billion in tax pools—or five years-plus of annual cash flow—to hold down its tax bill.

In retrospect, I was a little early recommending this one in June 2007; we’ve had to live with some volatility and a relatively mild distribution cut. But counting the big distributions it’s paid, we pretty much break even. And more important, it looks like the tide has turned in our favor for gas.

Advantage is still one of the more aggressive holdings and is very much still a levered play on natural gas. With those caveats, Advantage Energy Income Fund remains a strong buy up to USD12 and a solid bet to revisit the upper teens in coming months.

Arctic Glacier’s fourth quarter earnings announcement Friday should have been a day of vindication for shareholders. The packaged ice trust posted the best fourth quarter results in its history, thanks in large part to 12 successful acquisitions of distributors and manufacturing plants in the US.

Sales, earnings, cash flow and distributable cash all rose at double-digit rates for the year. That was despite the challenge faced by a weaker US economy and falling US dollar because some 80 percent of overall cash flow now comes from this country.

Fourth quarter growth was slightly less, with sales rising 9 percent overall and 4 percent not including acquisitions. That was the result of less-than-optimal weather conditions as even US demand remained steady. And it was despite an estimated CAD4.5 million negative impact on revenue—offset by a drop in the Canadian dollar value of expenses—because of the weak US dollar.

Because Arctic operates primarily in the colder regions of North America, cash flow and earnings are generally negative in the fourth quarter and strongly positive in the spring and summer. That remained the case last year, but cash from operations was 2.5 times higher than the prior year. And although distributable cash per unit was again seasonably negative, the deficit was a sixth of fourth quarter 2006 levels.

Moreover, fourth quarter cash flow from operations—after taking out maintenance capital spending and excluding adjustments to working capital—did cover distributions by a comfortable margin for the first time ever.

All in all, these were very strong results and clear proof of two things. First, Arctic’s strategy of acquisitions, particularly in the US, continues to pay off. Several deals completed in the waning months of 2007 will boost this year’s profits further, and management is on the hunt for more.

Second, Arctic’s business is standing up to the stress tests faced by trusts. It’s been able to perform even with the US economy weakening and the Canadian dollar strengthening. That’s been a knock-out punch for more than a few trusts in recent months. The fact that Arctic is still thriving should give everyone a lot of confidence in its 10 percent-plus yield, no matter how bad things may get for the US economy in 2008.

Unfortunately, Arctic unitholders didn’t have much time to enjoy those happy results. The same day of that announcement, the US Dept of Justice (DoJ) staged a high-profile raid on the corporate offices of one of its US competitors, Reddy Ice (NYSE: FRZ). The raid—which was confirmed as part of an industrywide antitrust investigation of the packaged ice industry—triggered a one-day drop of roughly a third in Reddy’s share price, and its shares are still sliding today.

Arctic shares in turn dropped about 15 percent on Friday, as investor jubilation about the strong results quickly turned to fear about what the antitrust investigation might mean. The shares stabilized and recovered at least some lost ground today, despite overall turbulence in the market.

One reason is management’s very proactive stance on the issue. On Thursday, even before the raid, Arctic issued a press release stating it was “aware the Antitrust Division of the United States Department of Justice is conducting an investigation into possible antitrust issues in the packaged ice industry” and stated that it would “cooperate with authorities in the course of the investigation.”

Today, it issued another statement with greater detail on the case. First of all, management confirmed its corporate head offices in Winnipeg, Manitoba, hadn’t been subject to search by US or Canadian authorities. Second, CEO Keith McMahon of the fund’s operating company confirmed Arctic was “in receipt of a subpoena requiring production of documents” and affirmed the company was cooperating fully with the investigation and would provide information in both the US and Canada.

Obviously, where the DoJ is concerned, it’s impossible to tell where things will eventually wind up, particularly when an investigation is apparently in its initial stages, as this one is. And the uncertainty is likely to hang over Arctic shares until more details become available.

At this juncture, however, the important distinction is that Arctic is cooperating with the investigation and not resisting. As long as that’s the case, we investors shouldn’t have a lot to worry about.

It’s also worth pointing out that government investigations are, unfortunately, a part of doing business in any country, and most don’t amount to any material impact on the companies involved. In Arctic’s case, management has pledged to “continue to attend to business as usual,” which, as its fourth quarter numbers again confirm, is good news indeed.

We won’t be complacent on this issue. If it does turn out that Arctic’s exposure is greater than it now appears, I’ll have to reassess my bullishness on the trust’s long-run prospects. But again, the numbers hold the key for Arctic, as well as every other trust.

And despite the fear and panic in this marketplace, the trust’s strong fourth quarter and management’s solid outlook for 2008 are compelling. Arctic Glacier Income Fund remains a buy for those who don’t own it up to USD14. Everyone else should stay put and ride out the volatility.

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