5/12/09: More Good Numbers

First quarter earnings results will continue to flow for several more weeks. Here are results on eight more that have come out since the May Canadian Edge was published Friday.

The good news is all five trusts turned in solid numbers that continue to justify buying and holding them. That is, their underlying businesses remain solid and in good shape to cash in on the Canada’s coming economic and market recovery. All remain solid buys.

From the Conservative Holdings, Innergex Power Income Fund (TSX: IEF-U, INRGF) turned in a predictably solid quarter. Despite generally erratic hydro- and wind-power conditions, the trust managed a boost in output and cash flow, bringing its payout ratio down under 99 percent from nearly 130 percent in the year ago quarter. First quarter is typically a period of seasonal weakness for most power trusts.

Looking ahead, the wind and hydro focused power producer looks well set to profit richly from the growing value of “carbon neutral” power. The healthy balance sheet allows room for growth, as does the generally favorable opinion of Bay Street on the trust, which now derives 27 percent of energy from the wind. Management has maintained it has the financial wherewithal to make more acquisitions and development, and I expect to see more in the months ahead.

Like all power trusts, Innergex can grow but is most valuable as a reliable dividend payer, in the case at a monthly rate of more than 10 percent a year. It’s yet to say where it stands on 2011 taxation. But given the built-in tax advantages of other power trusts, I expect it to continue paying a robust dividend reliably. Buy Innergex Power Income Fund up to USD12.

ARC Energy Trust (TSX: AET-U, OTC: AETUF) was hit by a steep drop in oil and gas prices in the first quarter, which it was only partially able to shield against by hedging.

The good news is it was able to continue paying at a strong rate while continuing the robust development of its key play in the Montney Shale area, where it intends to spend half its capital budget in 2009. The bad news is, to meet those capital needs in a tough environment management has elected to trim the distribution once again, this time to a monthly rate of CAD0.10 a share.

As I’ve said repeatedly, however, the key for any energy producer in this environment isn’t to avoid distribution cuts at all costs. Rather, it’s to survive the tough times while remaining in position to profit when the economy inevitably bounces back and prices rebound. And with its Montney property, low operating costs of just CAD10.12 per barrel of oil equivalent produced, its low debt-to-annualized cash flow ratio of 1.57 and again very low payout ratio of just 56 percent, ARC’s among the surest bets to do just that. .

Average realized prices for oil and gas in the first quarter were USD46.44 per barrel and USD5.20 per thousand cubic feet, respectively. That builds in a big increase in cash flow from the 50 percent of output coming from oil production, where spot prices now are averaging more than USD10 per barrel greater. It also means a potential drop in natural gas income, though that’s likely to be mitigated by hedging.

To be sure, it’s going to take higher energy prices to really pump up ARC’s distribution and share price. And management is likely to continue focusing on investing in the Montney without taking on debt, meaning it will be frugal with its cash. But as a conservative bet on energy that pays a big dividend, ARC Energy Trust is a still a top pick up to USD16 for patient investors.

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF) reported net income of CAD1.3 million (CAD0.04 per unit) for the three months ended March 31, down from CAD9.5 million (CAD0.28 per unit) a year ago on declining industrial demand and the shut-in of its Beaumont facility until late in the quarter.

Revenue and earnings for the Sulphur Products & Performance Chemicals segment were CAD99.7 million and CAD9.1 million, respectively, compared to CAD98.9 million and CAD19.9 million a year ago. Sales volume was lower, but the unit benefited from higher pricing and the impact of a weaker Canadian dollar on US-dollar denominated revenue. Pulp Chemicals revenue was CAD11.9 million, down from CAD14.8 million in reduced demand for sodium chlorate. Chemtrade’s International unit recorded a revenue decline of 52 percent, as global demand for sulphur and sulphuric acid weakened sharply.

Distributable cash for the period was CAD9.6 million (CAD0.31 per unit), down 46 percent from CAD17.9 million (CAD0.53 per unit) a year ago. The payout ratio rose to 96.4 percent from 56.1 percent.

Chemtrade CEO Mark Davis noted, “Now that the Beaumont plant is back to normal operations, we believe that over the next 12 months we will generate distributable cash after maintenance capital with expenditure above our current distribution rate.” Even at current levels of demand–that is, assuming the green shoots emerging in the global economy don’t develop into growth trunks–the rest of 2009 should be better because Chemtrade incurs the majority of its capital expenditures and plant maintenance costs in the first half of the year. Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund remains a buy up to USD7.

Enerplus Resources (TSX: ERF-U. NYSE: ERF) also took a hit to its first quarter numbers from lower energy prices. Realized selling prices of USD42.41 per barrel of oil and USD5.13 per thousand cubic feet of natural gas were even lower than ARC’s and on the low side of the industry. The trust also announced it would put its Kirby Oil Sands project on the shelf at least temporarily, due to bad economics at current oil prices.

The good news for Enerplus is that its venture in the Bakken region is actually paying off better than expected. That plus the  natural gas assets acquired in the 2007 Focus Energy takeover have ensured low cost supplies (operating costs CAD9.84 per barrel of oil equivalent) and give management a lot of flexibility to manage its output in a difficult environment. First quarter output actually rose 7 percent, though management expects to back that off a bit in coming quarters.

Enerplus’ financial strength remains its greatest assets, with debt of just 0.6 times annualized cash flow among the lowest in the industry this quarter. That’s again a very large point for the trust’s potential longevity and ability to weather this very difficult environment. And it’s a very big reason why the shares have nearly doubled off their recent lows.

Enerplus Resources remains at the mercy of energy prices’ ups and downs like all trusts, but it remains a buy up to USD22 for those who don’t already own it. Note that management has stated it intends to remain a big dividend payer well after 2011, when it intends to convert to a corporation.

Newalta Income Fund (TSX: NAL, NWLTF) reported a CAD4.4 million (CAD0.10 per share) first quarter loss. Revenue declined 25 percent to CAD112.5 million as low oil prices and uncertainty about the economy hit drilling activity in Western Canada. Funds from operations for the quarter declined to CAD6.8 million from CAD27.2 million in the same quarter a year earlier.

Newalta’s Western Division revenue and net margin declined by 30 percent and 55 percent year-over-year, respectively, due to the 49 percent and 38 percent declines in crude and natural gas prices, respectively. Eastern Division revenue and net margin declined 17 percent and 74 percent, respectively, on a 58 percent decline in lead pricing and a weak Ontario economy.

Management has seen some improvement thus far in the second quarter; waste shipments have risen, and customers are ramping up project activity.

Newalta had already initiated a hiring freeze, suspended salary increases and restricted travel and other discretionary expenses in an effort to control costs. These measures will continue for the foreseeable future. Newalta has also reduced its capital spending budget for 2009 by 60 percent from its original forecast to CAD40 million. Management has also reduced long-term debt. Newalta Income Fund is a buy up to USD5.

Paramount Energy Trust’s (TSX: PMT-U, OTC: PMGYF) first quarter results were boosted by significant mark-to-market gains in the trust’s hedging portfolio. Paramount recorded net earnings of CAD78.6 million primarily due to a CAD95.1 million unrealized gain deriving from decreases in AECO and NYMEX forward prices for gas.

Production for the period decreased from 183.8 million cubic feet per day in the first quarter of 2008 to 167.1 million cubic feet; the production decline stemmed from the sale of non-core assets, cold-weather downtime in January, and the fact that Paramount held back new production to take advantage of reduced royalties announced by Alberta in March to take effect in April.

Realized prices declined 11 percent from year-earlier levels to CAD6.46 per million cubic feet. The trust realized CAD14.4 million in hedging gains during the period.

Funds flow was down to CAD41.2 million (CAD0.36 per unit) from CAD56.2 million (CAD0.51 per unit) a year ago. Paramount paid out 52.2 percent of funds flow to unitholders.

Revenue for the quarter total CAD97.1 million, down from CAD121.9 million a year ago. Paramount has planned an additional CAD25 million for capital expenditures over the final three quarters of 2009, to be used for land purchases and other strategic expenditures. As of May 5, 2009 Paramount had an average of 107,380 gigajoules per day hedged from April 2009 to March 2011 at an average price of CAD7.44 per gigajoule; the average AECO price for this period is CAD5.05 per gigagoule. Paramount’s current CAD0.05 per unit per month payout is sustainable given the trust’s hedging portfolio and its conservative assumptions for the balance of 2009. Paramount Energy Trust is a buy up to USD5.

Provident Energy Trust (TSX: PVE-U, NYSE: PVX) derived some two-thirds of its first quarter cash flow from its midstream business, which processes and sells natural gas liquids. That business continues to expand as management devotes a rising amount of cash flow to expanding its asset base, including the construction and expansion of two major storage caverns set to be completed later this year. Despite the economy, midstream throughput actually rose 4 percent in the first quarter, even as margins improved.

The growth of the midstream business will continue to help stabilize profits in 2009, despite energy prices ups and downs. Oil and gas output actually slipped about 11 percent, as the trust continued to deal with relatively high operating costs (CAD14.26 per barrel of oil equivalent) and a tough financing market, though production is anticipated to stabilize around 24,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the full year.

There’s still the question of the lawsuit by Quicksilver Resources (NYSE: KWK) over the sale of Provident’s interest in BreitBurn Energy Partners (NSDQ: BBEP) in the US. The latter has continued to have problems paying its distribution and the case isn’t going away soon. On the other hand, Provident did manage to slash 42 percent off its interest expense, a major plus for its longevity. And most of these cases tend to be settled at some point. For its part, Provident maintains BreitBurn’s woes are more a function of falling natural gas prices

Provident’s average realized selling prices of USD36.23 for oil and USD4.75 per thousand cubic feet for natural gas leave a lot of room for upside. And the trust continues to trade at a big discount to the value of its reserves alone, even leaving out the growing midstream business. That all makes Provident Energy Trust a buy up to USD6.

Vermilion Energy Trust (TSX: VET-U, OTC: VETMF) remains the trust most insulated against the storms raging in the energy market, thanks to very low debt (its debt-to-annualized cash flow ratio is 0.9) and location in all three major world energy markets (Europe, the Far East and North America). But it’s certainly not immune to the weak economy and low energy prices.

First quarter production remained steady across the company’s global properties. But sharply lower realized selling prices triggered a 21.1 percent drop in revenue, and management has cut planned 2009 capital spending in half, pending some recovery in natural gas prices.

The trust’s payout ratio is still very low at 57 percent, but that’s well above the sub-30 percent range it’s been hugging in recent quarters. Meanwhile, dividends and capital spending actually exceeded overall cash flow in the quarter, common for most trusts but rare for Vermilion, which has generally maintained the very conservative policy of generating free cash flow.

The good news is this bad news will almost surely prove to be short-lived. For one thing, Vermilion managed to slash its first quarter operating costs from CAD14.01 to CAD11.52 per barrel of oil equivalent. Promising new finds should continue to hold output steady on a global basis.

Meanwhile, though the Libyan government’s prospective bid has delayed matters, the trust is on the verge of selling its 41 percent stake in developer Verenex (TSX: VNX, OTC: VRNXF), which will generate more than enough cash to both fund further expansion and effectively wipe out the trust’s remaining debt load.

The long and the short of it is that Vermilion remains an exceptionally steady energy play in an otherwise extremely fractured and volatile industry. A further dip in energy prices could pressure even Vermilion’s distribution. But if prices even stabilize from here, the distribution will remain solid. And five-year, debt-adjusted per share reserve growth is a robust 5 percent. Vermilion Energy Trust remains a buy up to USD30.

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