4/22/14: Warming Up to Kinder Morgan

We’ve upgraded Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) to a Buy below $37 in the Growth Portfolio given strong recent results and promising new gas transport contracts, as well as the stock’s improving trading posture.

We’re also reiterating our Buy on Aggressive Portfolio holding Atlas Resource Partners (NYSE: ARP) in the wake of criticism by the Hedgeye research shop, while downgrading Mid-Con Energy Partners (Nasdaq: MCEP) to a Sell to underscore our preference for cheaper drillers with a more attractive growth profile. 

For more information, see portfolio updates in the April 22 issue of MLP Investing Insider.

Stock Talk

Kestrelwind

Curtis Lyman

Igor,

Why is KMI a buy, given the question as to whether they’re really covering their distributions by sacrificing maintenance and R&D? I’m sure you may find solace in KMI at a reduced valuation, based upon its market cap, but, aren’t there better buy candidates in the mid/small cap space who can show potential for increasing distributions more rapidly that the “Kinder Behemoth?”

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Thank you for your patience, and for the question. When Hedgeye issued similar criticisms of Kinder Morgan last fall we covered them in some detail and followed up when management addressed these one by one and essentially demolished them. For instance, maintenance capex doesn’t include maintenance accounted for under operating expenses, and Kinder Morgan’s solid safety record also suggests they’re not skimping on required fixes. The weak price action has had more to do with the slowdown in distribution growth at KMP, which in turn had to do with the heavy spending (and related unit issuance) related to new growth projects. As there come on line in the next year or two I expect concerns to diminish.

Mark Drum

Mark Drum

Hi Igor

ARP significantly missed their numbers (and actually announced negative results) on their just announced quarterly report and have now issued a 13.5M share secondary offering that they claim will fund a previously announced acquisition with projected accretive results. Hope accretive is positive and not negative. The units have fallen from 23 + to around 19 since mid march.

What is your take on all of this … are these guys making the right moves.

Thanks
Mark

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Apologies for the belated reply, but we did cover Atlas Resource Partners in the Portfolio Update section of the new issue that came out the same day as your question. As you probably saw, our confidence in ARP remains high despite the temporary weather issues they experienced in the first quarter. Management still expects sufficient distributable cash flow to fully cover their annual distribution guidance, and the new assets they acquired are expected to be accretive.

Kent Christenson

Kent Christenson

KMR offers many unannounced stock dividends.
it seems to pay much better than standard dividends.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

KMR offers the same distribution as KMP except that it makes it in KMR units rather than cash. This avoids the issue of unrelated business income for IRA accounts, but otherwise the financial proposition is similar to that of KMP.

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